Coin dealers are lousy economists so I don’t want to waste your time discussing the economic background of the last few days. What I would like to share with you is my take on how it’s impacted my business and what I see are the short term effects of the credit crunch, liquidity crisis, Dow meltdown, etc. on the coin business.

My business was screamingly active in July and August. It slowed down considerably in September and it has been extremely slow in October. I have read on a few dealers’ websites that they are still selling lots of rare coins and that they have people calling from out of the blue purchasing items from their inventory. I think this is a crock. Unless you are a dealer selling bullion right now, you probably (there are exceptions…) are not doing much coin business. You might be purchasing coins from clients who bought them a year or two ago but selling your existing inventory right now? I doubt it.

That’s not to say that the coin business has shut down entirely. It definitely has not. I’ve sold some nice collector grade coins in the past week and my wholesale business is actually a bit better than I would have expected. But my regular clients are taking a wait and see attitude towards the coin market, as am I. With the Dow dropping hundreds of points every day, it’s hard to be excited about the coin market right now.

As recently as a few weeks ago, I commented that the generic gold market was very weak and that premiums for $20 Libs and Saints were as low as at any time I could remember. You literally could not give away double eagles. Three weeks later and the world of generics is a very, very different place. As I write this, gold has a spot price of around $863 but Brilliant Uncirculated (MS60 to MS61) double eagles are worth between $1250 and $1300 each.

I actually recommended in one my recent blogs that it might be a good idea to stock up on gold as the premiums got so low and, for once (!) I was right. I think the moral of the story is that it’s a good idea to have a small position in double eagles for your personal protection and to move in and out of as premiums ebb and flow. My guess is that the premiums will stay very high for a while.

Here are some more thoughts and suggestions for rare coin collectors in these uncertain economic times: (more…)

By Doug Winter -  www.raregoldcoins.com

I appear to have hit on a popular format as the last three articles I’ve written (a Ten Rarest Triumvirate on Liberty Quarter Eagles, Eagles and Dahlonega gold) have garnered considerable positive accolades. I personally like writing these kinds of articles and I like reading them as well. Lots of information in a tight, compact, format…what’s not to love?

This month, we’re going to look at Liberty Head half eagles. This design was first adopted in 1839, modified in 1840, modified again in 1866 (with the addition of the motto IN GOD WE TRUST on the reverse) and finally replaced in 1907. Liberty Head half eagles were produced at the Philadelphia, Carson City, Charlotte, Dahlonega, New Orleans, Denver and San Francisco mints. This is the only denomination to have been produced at seven mints.

The Liberty Head half eagle series is technically incompletable due to the extreme rarity of the 1854-S (see below for more information) but the rest of the issues are available. If a collector is condition-oriented, the half eagles of this design are a real challenge. There are a host of Liberty Head half eagles, especially in the No Motto design, that are excessively rare in Uncirculated and many are very rare even in properly graded AU55 to AU58.

I personally like this series a lot even though I would be the first to admit that assembling a complete (or near-complete) set would be daunting. I would probably suggest that a beginner or a collector on a budget form a specialized set or, more likely, focus on the issues from one particular mint.

For collectors who try to focus on legitimate rarities, there is no shortage of issues in this series that fit the bill. All of the following issues are rare in all grades and, as I mentioned above, all are very rare in higher grades.

In my opinion, the ten rarest Liberty Head half eagles are as follows:

1. 1854-S

As with the quarter eagle of this date, the 1854-S half eagle is a major rarity. But the 1854-S is considerably rarer and it is regarded as the rarest regular issue Liberty Head gold coin of any denomination as well as one of the rarest half eagles of any design. There were only 268 struck of which a grand total of three are currently known. One is impounded in the Smithsonian while the other two are in tightly-held collections. The finest known is owned by the Pogue Family in Dallas and it is ex: Eliasberg: 471 (where it brought $187,000) while the other is ex: Norweb, Wolfson and Col. Green. One of the bigger numismatic thrills I’ve had in the last few years was at a coin show where the owner of the Eliasberg 1854-S handed me the coin (still in its original clear Lucite display holder from the Eliasberg sale) and let me study it while he sat across from me at my table. (more…)

With little fanfare, an important group of half eagles and eagles were sold at the recent Heritage Long Beach auction. I was intrigued by the source of this group of coins and since the Heritage catalog had nothing about their origin, I decided to do a little digging. What I found out is extremely interesting for any collector of No Motto Liberty Head gold.

The coins that initially got me intrigued were a small group of eagles produced between 1844 and 1847. The two coins that I thought were especially interesting were an 1846 eagle graded MS62 by NGC (Lot 3852) and an 1846-O eagle graded MS62 by NGC (lot 3858). I am pretty aware of all the high grade examples of these two dates and the two coins in the Heritage sale were unknown to me.

But what really got my interest were some of the secondary coins surrounding these two eagles. Lot 3851 in the Heritage sale was another 1846 eagle. This would also have graded MS62 except for the fact that it had hairlines from a cleaning and also a slight “environmental damage” sort of appearance which, in my opinion, looked liked the result of having been buried at one time. Another odd coin appeared as Lot 3857. This was an 1846-O eagle that had the sharpness and details of an MS62 but which had a dull and very grainy reverse with a very “ED” appearance.

My first reaction was that these coins might have been from shipwreck; specifically from the S.S. New York which contained some high quality gold from this era. But why, I asked myself, would coins from this wreck not be packaged in the special NGC holder that designated these coins as being from the shipwreck? After all, the recent Stack’s 7/08 sale of these coins had conclusively proven that the S.S. New York pedigree added considerable value.

The answer to the mystery was solved when I looked at Lot 3851 in the Heritage sale. This was an 1846 eagle with Uncirculated details but which had reverse rim damage at 2:00. When I saw this damage I thought “backhoe.” And when I thought “backhoe damage” I thought “Jackson, Tennessee hoard.” (more…)

By Doug Winter - RareGoldCoins.com

Many articles about coin collecting (including more than a few written by yours truly) have suggested that it is extremely important for collectors to learn how to grade. In theory, this makes sense. But is this realistic? Can a person with a family, a job and interests besides coins realistically learn how to grade coins?

I think that the “learn how to grade” advice that I mentioned above is fine, at least in theory. However, is this really any different than a doctor suggesting that in order to better care for myself that I learn brain surgery, anatomy and how to read X-rays in my spare time? I’m obviously not about to become an expert in any of these fields and I wonder if it is unrealistic for me—a professional coin dealer—to suggest that a collector become an expert grader.

I think there is really only one way to become good at grading coins. You have to look at thousands and thousands of coins in person. And then you have to buy and sell coins so that you have the confidence to determine that your skill level is there.

But even if you look at thousands of coins in person, if you do not have innate grading abilities, it probably does not matter. I know a number of dealers who have been viewing coins for years and years and I still don’t think they have a clue how to grade because they just don’t have a good eye. As I’ve written before, I think the ability to grade a coin is genetic. Either you have the ability to do it written into your genetic code or you don’t.

That said, is there a way that the collector can acquire grading skills that make buying coins a safer and more pleasurable experience? I think the answer is a resounding “yes” and I have some suggestions: (more…)