By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

“Lackluster” is how we would best describe activity at the show. Dealers definitely had some cash flow issues and we heard several major generic/bullion dealers had margin calls on gold while others battled just to pay their ANA auction bills. Take away the roll coaster ride of the financial markets and gold, and even with poorer cash flows, it was hard to distinguish this Long Beach Show from any other held during the same time period.

Typically, the fall show has always been the weakest. Attendance was surprisingly strong Thursday, but on Friday you roll a bowling ball down the isles. We really don’t think this show is a good representation to fully gauge the market, but we’ll try to comment on all significant happenings we saw.

CLEAR YOUR HEAD AND TAKE A DEEP BREATH

Too many people do not see what is happening. It is amazing to us how many people are in total denial that the roaring bull market is over for now. In our last Market Report we spooked many people (and had many dealers angry at us) for telling it like it is-that a correction was underway. What everyone failed to read was that the correction was occurring primarily in the following 3 areas: *”inferior”, *”product”, and *”widget” coins. These are clearly off by a full 10-20%. See the end of this report for our definitions of those areas.

The three groups listed rode the bull market harder and longer than they ever should have. They actually did hurt the pricing on “better’ and “rarer” coins for a long time as pieces lingered on the market and sapped cash flows. Now that a huge separation between quality and lesser coins is occurring (like with MS66 Saints, CAC stickered pieces are WHOLESALING for $2,750.00 while NON CAC coins are selling for $2,250.00) the better coins are finally free to move up in value with out being dragged down by an inferior piece.

There is no question, the truly rare and NICE coins are still bringing all the money and then some. So long as you have true quality and can sit through a potential short term correction, you will be fine and your coins will produce the sensational returns you expect. (more…)

By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

For every person who is a seller, we have found a buyer who thinks now is a good time and coins are cheap. The reasons are varied as to why people are selling. Very few have said to us they needed the money to live off of. We think the weakest players dropped out last year. Right now we see significant asset management occurring. The collectors we deal with want to move into the better material and are pretty much cleaning out their closets. One or two have also told us they want to be in cash positions in case opportunities come up (in either coins or real estate). It is a pure fact though, in August, we saw a substantial amount of ‘net” sellers.

Every major customer we have seems to be aggressive buyers right now. However, they don’t want widgets or inferior gradeflation ravaged pieces. They will pay what it takes to buy the “right” coin. Also lurking heavily are investors. In our opinion they actually make up 40% or so of the market today. That is a VERY dangerous sign to us the market may be topping out (we do think overall its off 10-20%). Not just the big players are buying. Its really a matter of what coins you have to offer and at what level. Big money is not stupid money. They sense the market is off and try harder to buy when they sense a little desperation.

Interestingly, many of the long time smaller players who still want to play feel “priced out” right now. The bad news is, if you stand back and look at things, coins really have been too cheap overall for the past few years. Granted the “ubber players” maybe dominating a bit more now, but the average collectors need to readjust their thinking. Coins maybe taking a brief hic-up, but they aren’t going to stay down for long at all!

Always remember, coins are a LONG TERM buy. Yes, there can be short term gains, but there also can be short term losses. Coins are NOT like stocks. If you crave action, go buy stocks then! The BEST returns we have ever witnessed come from people who buy the best and hold (look at Pittman, Norweb, or any great long time collector). Getting in and out because you completed a registry set most likely will NOT yield you substantial profits-especially now with the market topping and even correcting. (more…)

By Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatics

As we stated in our last Market Report, we were having trouble gauging where the market is. From our vantage point we see some very interesting happenings. It is still hard for us to see the exact direction the market is going. BUT we do NOT see it crashing or making a major overall adjustment right now.

Big money collectors are still in the game-however they are clearly shifting their goals. We have seen many cashing out “lesser” coins and reinvesting (for lack of a better word) in to rarer more quality orieinted coins. By that we mean if a player had a $1 82CC in MS66, he sold it and bought something like a GEM Bust Quarter (if one had been around). In the past 2 weeks since the ANA, we have been able to outright purchase (or recieve on consignment) at least $2 MILLION dollars worth of coins. That is something we have never experienced at this time of the year. It was weird, we’d do one deal then the next day out of the blue another would come up and we’d be flying out. Of course right after ANA is usally the worst time to sell, but people didn’t seem to care as they questioned the future or had other coins they wanted to buy now. Not one person who sold told us they needed the money to pay bills (although one person did mention taxes). Most were shifting focus or assets.

Collectors seem very skeptical about buying unless a coin is super rare, has over the top quality for the grade, and is a must buy for their specific collection. We do not see many impulse purchases happening right now from collectors. The real danger, is we do see substantial INVESTOR purchasing occuring. We can sell MILLIONS to the telemarketers who deal with them or the 2 big funds that are out there. We have had several INVESTORS call us direct and requested we build them portfolios. INVESTORS are funny, they won’t just buy anything, but when they find the “right” coin or hear the ‘right” numbers about it, the checks fly! Our sales since ANA have been incredibly strong-but then we also have a supply of fresh, truely rare, and neat coins, while many other dealers do not. We still will pay what it takes to buy certain coins because we know what is NOT available. And yes, we are still looking for that NON 1926/1932 PCGS MS65 CAC stickered $10 Indian. (more…)