By Larry Edelson

Gold fell from its record-high of $1,038 set on March 17 down to the recent $850 level. But Edelson does not believe this is the end of gold’s bull market based on two possible macroeconomic background scenarios for gold.

The first scenario Edelson outlines is if the Fed’s efforts to save the U.S. economy and financial system succeed and the credit crisis eases.

Under this scenario, the Fed’s recent actions of slashing interest rates and pumping money into the economy are successful — the U.S. economy recovers and global growth resumes.

As a result, the credit crunch eases, and money flows through the pipeline. The big commercial and investment banks finally stop taking massive write-downs on bad mortgage securities, foreclosures shrink, home prices stop hemorrhaging, and home sales pick up. Businesses start hiring and consumers resume spending.

In this scenario, many on Wall Street would say that gold’s bull market would be over. However, if the Fed is successful at turning the U.S. economy and credit crisis around, it will only be because it flooded the system with hundreds of billions of paper dollars, creating wild inflation. If the economy were to pick up on top of that, between inflation and resumed economic growth, global demand for gold would soar.

The argument could then be made that when the economy turns back up, the Fed will head off inflation by aggressively raising interest rates, choking off the bull market in gold. But, from late 2004 to mid-2006, the Fed raised interest rates 17 times, in steady quarter-point increments to 5.25% from a low of 1%. And over that period, gold surged 127%! (more…)