Economic uncertainty, sovereign risk in western markets and appetite for gold from Asia to underpin market

The World Gold Council (“WGC”) expects that demand for gold will be strong during 2010, driven by growing demand for jewelery in China and India as well as an increase in European and US investment in the context of continued economic instability, sovereign risk and the threat of a ‘double dip’ recession.

According to WGC’s Gold Demand Trends report, published today, demand in India and China will continue to grow driven by jewelery demand, in spite of high local currency gold prices. In Q1 2010, India was the strongest performing market as total consumer demand surged 698% to 193.5 tonnes. In China, demand proved resilient; demand increased 11% in Q1 2010 to 105.2 tonnes.

This strong demand is despite high local gold prices, which on May 12 in India increased to Rs 56,032/0z, the highest level for the year, while at the same time in China prices reached an all-time high of RMB8,480/oz, suggesting that consumers in India and China are becoming accustomed to higher gold prices.
Concerns over Greece’s public finances and debt contagion fears in Europe have led to strong buying in particular for gold coins, bars and gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) during May which may show up in the Q2 2010 figures. While momentum in ETF tonnage paused during Q1 2010, gold ETF flows started to rise strongly again in April and May as investors sought less volatile investments in which to protect their funds against economic turmoil. On 20 May the GLD SPDR Gold Trust held a record 1,200 tonnes, with a value of US$46.88 billion.

Aram Shishmanian, CEO of the World Gold Council commented:

“Currently, European gold investment demand is exceptionally strong, especially from German and Swiss investors. This is mainly attributable to concern over public debt levels in the Eurozone and the potential inflationary impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement of the US$1 trillion rescue package to purchase Eurozone government bonds to address the Greek debt crisis.”

“With the global economic recovery still burdened by high and rising debt levels in Western economies, as well as the renewed threat of recession driving down the US dollar and equities, the outlook for gold as a liquid, reliable asset class and as a store of wealth remains highly favorable.”

According to the WGC, global jewelery demand in non Western countries will continue to recover after reaching 470.7 tonnes in Q1 2010. Economic recovery in Europe and the US will add to this demand, as a potential return to restocking in the jewelery sector is likely, given that existing inventories have been run down since the first half of 2009 to very lean levels. This should provide fundamental support to the gold price. (more…)

With financial markets still reeling from the global credit squeeze, and growing inflationary pressures dollar demand for gold reached US $20.9bn in the first quarter of 2008, a 20% increase over the same period in 2007 and more than double the level of four years earlier.

However, tonnage demand for gold at 701 tonnes was down 16% on the same period last year and represents the lowest quarterly figure for five years, according to Gold Demand Trends, which is released today by World Gold Council (WGC). This fall was caused primarily by the sharp rise and unusually high volatility in the gold price, which briefly touched record levels above $1,000/oz in mid-March.

The data, compiled independently for WGC by GFMS Ltd, show that the impact of these factors hit home particularly hard in the “physical buying” markets of gold jewellery and coins and bars. Jewellery demand declined 21% year-on-year to 445.4 tonnes, the lowest quarterly level since the early 1990s. Net retail investment demand dropped by 35% to 72.7 tonnes in Q1.

There was a stark contrast in the gold exchange traded fund (ETF) market, however, where a combination of continuing instability in the equities markets, ongoing fears over the dollar and rising inflation, and increased understanding of gold’s investment attributes helped spur demand. Demand for gold ETFs was up 100% on Q1 2007 at 73 tonnes for the quarter – representing $2.2 billion in dollar terms.

Positive news also came from two of the world’s biggest emerging economies with overall demand for gold in China and Russia up 15% and 9% respectively on the same period last year, driven by increasing consumer wealth and ease of access to attractive jewellery and retail investment products. (more…)