By Pinnacle Rarities

Gold Closes Up, But the Myth Lives On

Before last week’s convention, I had a discussion about the myth referred to as the “Long Beach Curse.” The prevailing sentiment is that the spot price of gold always goes down during the week of the convention. This phenomenon is often bantered amongst gold dealers deciding whether to load up or unload inventories around these major conventions. During last week’s show, gold touched an all time high, and settled on Friday about nine dollars up for the week seemingly debunking the myth. A quick review of spot prices for the last decade’s thirty shows reveals the trend has some statistical backbone. However, the true curse has been the lack of quality material available for purchase. And this isn’t limited to the Long Beach Convention.

Collectors have continued to cull their collections as economic uncertainty has caused many to tighten their belts. However, they sell off the lesser quality material first. Spending habits have become more selective with the prevailing market focused on value and rarity. When major collections and true rarities enter this market the best quality material is quickly absorbed. The dregs are then recycled through dealer inventories and the myriad of auction houses that also clamor for fresh material. But rest assured, if you’ve been selective in your purchases and your collection was purchased for the coins it contains and not the plastic that contains it, you’re in good shape. The rare coin industry is alive and well – with an emphasis on “rare.” Looking at auction records over the last couple years, it’s easy to see quality and rarity still rule in this hobby of kings.

Now, back to that myth. During the last decade the spot price of gold has gone from a $256 in 2001 to $1297 (the Friday close after the latest Long Beach). It’s hard to imagine during this meteoric rise that the price of gold in any given week faltered. But overall, there were 19 of 30 weeks that showed declines in spot gold during the Long Beach convention. During the first five years of the decade, the rate of down cycles was an astounding three of four shows.

The number of down weeks is a bit padded as several of the weeks with advances only showed modest gains of $2 or less. So if you left the show early, the spot price would have been theoretically down for that show also. Regardless, with over three quarters of the conventions showing weak or down trends, it is no wonder the rumors started. The last five years have shown an improvement on the trend, but gold was still down at more than half the shows (eight of fifteen had declines).

So there is some statistical indications as to how the Long Beach Curse gained acceptance. But again, the real curse is one we recognize with all numismatic venues. There is an extremely diminished amount of quality material. True rarities and top pop condition rarities are commanding strong premiums, while the more common and lesser quality stuff has fallen stagnate. This increasing shift in the supply and demand equation coupled with an ever stronger precious metal price makes the outlook for rare coins seem bright – if only we could find the more coins.

A quick note to thank all our customers who have recently sold us coins or collections. Many of these items were exceptionally rare and of high quality. Thanks to you we have avoided the curse.

By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

Long Beach can be a mystery show. You may think you will do well and you won’t, or you may think you’ll do poor and do great. This show we did what we set out to accomplish-we bought some deals. However, had we not had these deals prescheduled, it would have been a complete bust. Even the now lone auction before the show (Goldberg) had very little Legend quality coins in it. For the first time in 10+ years, we stayed home and enjoyed the Memorial Day weekend.

Prior to”set up” day, we do whats called “lobby leaching”. That’s where we hang out at the hotels and do business (some scheduled, some not). We sensed right away this was not going to be an easy show. Many of the usual suspects had delayed their trips as well and few dealers were around to do business. We bought two coins totaling $4,000.00 Tuesday, a record low. So we gave up after two hours and went to dinner with a customer. Later we were told we missed nothing.

Typically the crowd to get in set up is large and anxious. This time, it was thin and quiet-something very unusual. Two things clearly had a major impact on dealers attendance: East Coast dealers pretty much stayed away because the Baltimore show is less than a week away. Second, it was sadly evident that a number of major dealers gave up their tables. There was no “buzz” on set up day. It was also the first time Legend made NO purchases what so ever on dealer day. There were NO Legend calibre coins to be found on the floor.

WHEN THE DOORS OPENED THURSDAY

Thursday was a complete surprise: a huge crowd showed up! There definitely was activity, however it was hard to tell if many rare coins were bought (we know generics and bullion were in demand). Also, the reduced amount of table may have given an illusion the show was busier than it was.

We had come to the show expecting to buy three deals and did. Deal #1: the Famous Bear Collection. This coin contains some fabulous handpicked mid range type coins. Deal #2: a partial GEM Type set all coins CAC. The coins are both rare and amazing! All are CAC. Deal #3: what we really traveled for, a stunning group of Early Copper coins. Between these three deals, we spent in excess of $1,250,000.00-something we had not done in over 2 years at Long Beach. We did not hear many complaints on Thursday except for the ever severe lack of coins.

THE MARKET

Checkout the results of the Heritage Auction and you will immediately see how strong the market is. They did not have any blockbuster collections and prices still managed to reach spectacular levels. The prices realized more than proved how strong demand is. There was a small group of GEM MS/DMPL Morgans all Ex PCGS Tour that brought crazy money. These coins had been off the market for many years. A collection of old holdered PR Seated and Barber Dimes brought insane prices (example $8,000.00 for a 1899 PCGS PR66 10C). Better gold coins also sold for very strong money as did pretty much anything nice and fresh. Someone at Heritage had told us that before the auction began, they had an 80% sell through. (more…)

Ira and Larry Goldberg will be holding three exceptional sales prior Long Beach. They include the sale of THE DAN HOLMES COLLECTION Part II, Middle Date U.S. Large Cents on Sunday May 30th, 2010, United States Coins and Currency on Monday May 31st, 2010 and then Ancient and World Coins & Currency on Tuesday & Wednesday June 1& 2, 2010.

Here we would like to highlight 4 of the World Coin Highlights, coincidentally all from the previous Goldberg’s Millennia Sale. They are as follows:

Lot 3411 Russia. Peter I, 1682-1725. Novodel Ruble struck in Gold, 1705 (Moscow).

Fr-76 (62); Sev-12; Bitkin-532; Diakov-page 87, part 1. 44.22 grams. Laureate, cuirassed youthful bust right. Reverse: Crowned, double-headed eagle with scepter and orb. Plain edge. Sharply struck with all details bold, Peter’s hair curls in higher than normal relief. The surfaces are fully prooflike on both sides, with the devices softly lustrous to frosty matte and the fields reflective with an almost watery texture. Undoubtedly a high gift of state, the coin has been carefully preserved, with minimal marks or hairlines. The reverse die shows faint radiating cracks. This is one of the most important of all Russian coins!

Struck in gold to the weight of 13 Ducats, 44.22 grams, and created from the dies of the novodel ruble of 1705 (Sev-185), this is the plate coin shown in Bitkin and Diakov which appeared in both the 1977 Soderman and the 1991 Goodman auctions and is the only specimen appearing at public auction in over 25 years. Severin mentions this particular specimen (his number 12) as well as another weighing 40.4 grams, making this one of only two known examples. He also mentions a gold 1707 rouble (no. 18) and a 1723 in 12-ducat weight, each presumably unique. NGC graded MS-63.

Among Peter’s numerous reforms, he caused his country’s coinage system to change from being the most old-fashioned in Europe to being the most up to date. His was the first coinage to employ the decimal system (dividing the Ruble into one hundred smaller units, of copper Kopecks). Part of his reform involved devaluation, which made, for the first time, the Russian Ruble equivalent in its buying power to the Polish, Saxony and Silesian thalers which had seen such free circulation within the country before. It is said that, when the first Ruble coins bearing Western-style Arabic dates were struck in 1707, it was Peter himself operating the coin press!
Estimated Value $275,000 – 325,000.

Ex Dr. Robert D. Hesselgesser Collection (5/30 – 6/1/05), lot 1751; Goodman Collection (Superior, Feb. 1991), lot 4; and Soderman Collection (Swiss Bank, Feb. 1977); Illustrated in Money of The World, coin 115. Ex Millennia, Lot 802 where it Realized $340,000 (more…)