By Doug Winter – RareGoldCoins.com

In the past few years, I’ve noticed an interesting trend in relation to the pricing of rare date gold coins. I refer to this as “value compression.” Let me explain what I mean.

When I mention this term I am referring to a small price premium between grades. The classic value-compressed issues have long been the Iowa and Roanoke commemorative half dollars. According to the most recent CDN Greysheet , the difference in value between an MS60 and MS65 Iowa half dollar is a whopping $12 (!) while a Roanoke shows a value increase of just $70 between MS60 and MS65.

This phenomenon has begun creeping into the United States gold market as well. Areas which appear susceptible to value compression include common date St. Gaudens double eagles, gold dollars, lower grade Carson City double eagles and early gold in the EF45 to AU55 grade range.

Why do values compress in certain series? The most basic explanation has to do with current grading standards and appearance; a secondary reason is based on the actual design and size of a coin.

As an example, an 1851-C gold dollar is a $1,250-1,350 in EF45 in today’s market. In AU53 it is worth in the area of $1,500-1,600. Why is there such a small difference for what should be a pretty hefty increase in grade? This is mainly due to the way that these coins are now graded. There is no longer much aesthetic difference between an EF45 and an AU53 gold dollar and the market recognizes this by compressing the price spread between these two grades. In the case of the 1851-C dollar, the value is even more compressed between an AU50 and an AU53 or an AU53 and AU55. Simply put, if a collector can see no discernible difference between two grades, then why pay a premium.

In no series is this compression more evident than with common date St. Gaudens double eagles. If you take a random sample of freshly graded MS62 coins and freshly graded MS64’s, there is probably going to be little difference. In fact, the 62’s might even be nicer than the 64’s. This inconsistency of grade is why an MS62 is currently worth $1,450 and an MS64 is worth just $1,600. Back in the days when there was an appreciable difference between the two grades, there was an appreciable price difference. (more…)

By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

THE SHOW

We can never stop telling all our friends who read this what a terrific job Mary Counts, David Chrenshaw and team do. Every show there is something new and improved. If you can’t make an ANA or FUN, the Baltimore Shows are a must attend!

We’d also like to thank everyone who stopped by to see the display of a few treats from the amazing Brian Sonnier Collection of colored dollars.

ACTIVITY

This is tricky. Legend did extremely well, but we set no records (although we did sell a big coin for a record price, see below). One thing we never felt was a true “flow”. We spoke to other dealers who had great shows, and some dealers who did miserable. So we will term the overall show as “hit or miss”.

Activity prior to the show in the hotels was extremely strong. Gold was up and the crack out genius’ and others were hot to buy the cheaper gold. However, unlike previous runs, they were not purchasing bigger gold coins (they would however call their customers and easily pre-sell many bigger coins). They just wanted generics. Our sales were a little sluggish prior to the show opening. It stunned us as we had just come from record sales back in our office.

When the show actually started (dealer set up), there was little to no buzz. Its not that dealers weren’t sure of the levels, it was more like everyone was too cautious for one reason or another. But, dealers did want to do business. Probably the biggest problem (something which is usually not recognized until later) was little there was to buy on the floor and the auctions. The services weren’t making much either. So anything really nice and fresh, sold immediately for a big premium while everything else sat around.

The public attendance was strong, but they did not seem to be buying heavy. Most just wanted to look around and collect information.

Through out the entire show, we were busy selling many McClaren coins. On the floor, our stealth sales team (lead by a dealer we will call the Energizer Bunny because he keeps going and going….) did very well. Of course the cheaper the prices, the more sales the crew did. We were VERY surprised to see the amount of mid range Type ($4,000-$10,000.00) they sold. Even though at the hotels Gold was in demand, our stealth team sold more silver Type, with Walkers being next on the list.

Each day we walked the entire bourse floor to see if anything new surfaced. On Friday, we only spent $8,000.00! There was NOTHING for us! This Baltimore show was Legends WORST buying show EVER!!! We’re not going to change our standards to fill our cases or put inferior dreck on our web site. (more…)

A Market Report by Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatics

Long Beach was exactly how we figured it to be-hit or miss. Fortunately for us, it was more of a hit, but not a great hit. The fact that gold crashed a during the show did have an impact on business for many dealers.

THE GOLDBERG SALE

This sale was small and had only one attention grabbing small collection-a dazzling group of Proof Barber Halves in PR66-PR68. Many of the coins has gorgeous colors. it was the kind of killer set Legend loves to buy intact. Too bad they did not offer it as one lot! We did end up buying nearly a dozen pieces. Most of the bigger gold coins in the sale were retreads. There was little excitement otherwise. Prices were mixed as the coins sold for exactly what they were worth (meaning if a coin was 90% all there-it sold cheap).

THE LONG BEACH SHOW

Our expectations were for it to be hit or miss. We could tell early on just by the auctions there would not be many fresh coins available. Because of that sense we did not bring any of our NEWPS from the office. We tried hard, but we did not even spend $100,000.00 at the show (we did spend several hundred thousand between the two auctions). Collectors were not even offering us any coins. It was unbelievably bone dry. Typically, at a strong Long Beach Show we will spend $1 million dollars.

Of course we had our stealth selling team operating (4 dealers). We gave each of the 4 coins that we felt fit their operations the best. Their results were startling. Our number one guy had his BEST Long Beach EVER! His activity was non stop from the time he started before the show began. He handles Type and collector oriented coins. Our #2 seller who handles similar coins, did well too. However, the other two who handle primarily gold-SOLD NOTHING! They were both unhappy campers. One told us at dealer set up, the gold guys did not even want to look. Obviously, things never got better. The WHOLESALE we did ourselves, was very strong. (more…)