By Steve Roach – Rare Coin Market Report Blog
First published in the Oct. 18, 2010, issue of Coin World

Gold continues to astound as it broke the $1,300 ounce level for the first time on Sept. 28, closing in New York at $1,306.60 an ounce.

The next day, gold hit a high of $1,313.20 before closing at $1,308.50.

In a nice contrast to the previous week’s House Subcommittee hearings focused on fighting fraud in the sale of gold coins, the Sept. 29 Wall Street Journal featured a front-page story that was overwhelmingly positive about gold’s potential to top $1,500 next year.

It focused on investors’ growing desire to hold actual gold in the form of coins and bars.

Reports by numerous analysts and banks seem to share a bullish view for gold, evidenced by a Sept. 28 report by Deutsche Bank that stated that $1,600 an ounce gold would not be surprising for 2012 and that gold would not be in a “bubble” until hitting $2,000.

The recent bull run-up in gold prices has been attributed to many things: continued uncertainty in the real estate market; concern about the value of currencies, especially China’s; low consumer confidence in the United States; and general concern about large central banks’ ability to control the money supply adequately.

But to collectors, one thing is clear: gold coins are much more expensive than they were in 2000, in large part due to the price of gold rising 353 percent over that time.

The increased threat of intrusive federal regulations in the coin industry, such as the recently introduced Coin and Precious Metal Disclosure Act (H.R. 6149) have done little to dampen the public’s appetite for gold coins.

But dealers have responded vocally to fight multiple pieces of legislation that could affect the coin market, forming political action committees aimed at fostering better communication between the coin community and legislators.

Many dealers reported that gold was the lone bright spot in the market at the recently completed Long Beach Coin, Stamp & Collectables Expo, where several market-makers elected to stay home, instead budgeting to attend the Whitman Coin and Collectibles Philadelphia Expo, another major show, scheduled for the following weekend.

HOW MANY TIMES CAN WE SAY THIS?

David Chrenshaw, Mary Counts, Lori Hamrick, and the entire Whitman team run some of the best shows to attend. The Philadelphia Show was yet another incredibly run show. Legend Numismatics LOVE ALL Whitman shows and plan on doing them as long as they are in business.

Everything is always perfectly set up. The Whitman people are incredibly friendly and accommodating. They even care about what dealers want at shows (and of course they show lots of LOVE the public). However,, they need to understand that the Philadelphia market is the same virtually as Baltimore. The Philadelphia Show actually cannibalizes those shows (Baltimore is three times a year). Even if it has to do with planning far ahead, you cannot have a major show on top of another (Long Beach was just last week). Thus, while public attendance was good at the show, few real buyers showed up (you also just had two major auctions at Long Beach). Of course very few West Coast dealers attended. We did not have a good retail show at all.

Attendance of serious BUYERS (of expensive coins) at coin shows is clearly diminishing. Save for an occasional FUN or ANA Show, it is rare that someone unknown will walk up and buy an expensive coin. We only did THREE retail sales at the show-and the biggest one was set up before hand. This time we tried to speak to a cross section of dealers where we saw collectors at their tables. EVERY ONE told us they ended up doing little in the way of sales. The crowds were mostly tire kickers. Its a little of everything (the market, the Internet, too many shows, etc) that probably caused this.

We really hope ALL show promoters start looking around and maybe even cutting back from 3 to 2 shows. As dealers, it makes no sense to keep shelling out $5,000.00+ per show to be tire kicked. We can all just meet in a hotel and go room to room and save the money and be done in a day. In fact, last Long Beach we actually skipped the show and did just that. The only thing holding us back from giving up our table there: 30 years of habitual attendance. Can’t break the habit. If we saw more serious buying public, then we would not even think of skipping a single show. But all coin dealerships in the end are businesses. Businesses need to make money to survive.

You can argue Philadelphia is only in its second year, but it still needs a huge jump start. Our concern is that this show will have raided the upcoming Baltimore Show. This show proved without a doubt, you can not stack major shows week after week. Maybe cut out the Baltimore summer show (BOTH dealer and collector attendance is MUCH lighter) to make all three shows stronger? The days of “if you build it they shall come” are over. People can sit home and buy coins with just one click. It would be ashame for the public if their favorite dealers had to stop attending shows.

THE PHILADELPHIA SHOW RESULTS

We did a tremendous amount of WHOLESALE. Of course the day before the show opened, it was easy to sell all gold-including BETTER more expensive pieces. Prices were a small concern, but if the coin was really rare and made sense, it sold. Proof Type also sold VERY well for us. In fact, we did not expect to sell much, and we out did our pre-show estimate by 400%! (more…)

By Steve Roach – Rare Coin Market Report

The market for full bands Roosevelt dimes is one dominated by a handful of specialists who are willing to spend big for the right coin.

Numismatic Guaranty Corp. calls circulation-strike Roosevelt dimes with both the upper and lower pair of bands on the torch showing full separation, having a complete and unbroken line dividing the bands, “full torch” (abbreviated as FT), while Professional Coin Grading Service calls them “full bands” (FB).

Both services began to recognize the designation in 2003 and the popularity of registry sets has fueled four-figure prices for condition rarities.

For example, on Sept. 6, a 1953-S Roosevelt dime graded Mint State 68 full torch by NGC realized $2,600 during an auction conducted by Teletrade.

Earlier this year, a 1951-D Roosevelt dime graded MS-68 full bands by PCGS (pictured above) sold for a very strong $4,600 while a stunning and beautifully toned 1949-D PCGS MS-68 full bands from the same consignor realized $3,105 at a Heritage Auction Galleries sale.

The market for high-end Roosevelt dimes is not entirely dependent on a full bands/torch designation.

At a Sept. 9, 2009, Heritage auction, a 1963-D Roosevelt dime graded MS-68 (without a full bands designation) realized a whopping $5,175.

The market for full bands Roosevelt dimes is the most robust for the series’ silver issues, produced from 1949 to 1964, although the occasional copper-nickel clad issue can soar, such as a NGC MS-68 full torch 1965 dime that brought $805 at a March 25 Heritage auction.

In the PCGS Registry, 137 registered sets are listed, consisting of the 48 Roosevelt dime circulation strikes from 1949 to 1964, with the top four sets 100 percent complete.

Many of the issues are unknown in grades finer than MS-67 full bands and the current No. 1 set contains each issue in MS-67 full bands and finer, with several MS-67+ full bands and a single MS-68 FB.

The owner of the No. 1 set has posted pictures of all but two of the coins in his set, named “close to perfect,” online. Browsing through them gives an introduction to the many different looks that Mint State Roosevelt dimes can have.