Legend Numismatics Market Report – The Philadelphia Coin Expo

By Laura Sperber on Monday, September 28, 2009
Filed Under: Coin Show News, Commentary and Opinion, Featured, Market Reports & Prices

By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

THE FIRST SHOW IS NOW HISTORY!

null Yet again we congratulate all of the hard work and fantastic jobs the entire Whitman staff does to make their shows clearly some of the BEST presented in the business. David Chrenshaw, Mary Counts, and Lori Hammrick are people who you can always count on to get the job done. It will take a lot of work, but this new show does indeed have strong potential.

WAS THE SHOW A SUCCESS?

Again, before we give our answer, remember; ANYTHING WE SAY IS FROM OUR VIEWPOINT.

Legend is probably one of the few dealers who did not like going to downtown Philadelphia. Sure, there is that incredible Reading Food Market across the street, but access to the convention center is not easy, we were concerned about crime in the area (sure enough we witnessed 3 people handcuffed and taken out of the show), and there are too many shows around it (either physically or date wise) to make collectors come out.

We DID end up having an exceptional show-however our ONLY activity happened at dealer set up and then mid day Saturday. In between we were VERY disappointed in the public attendance and overall activity. Thursday probably had the heaviest attendance-but that was still “light” in regards to a major show. Even dealer attendance was marginal. Many generic dealers (especially the larger ones) pretty much had STOPPED buying GOLD generics prior to the shows start-which hurt the show for sure (we’ll explain later). We were stumped that out of the 1000+ McClaren coins we brought, we only sold 4 to the public. You certainly can’t say price or the quality were factors (most McClaren coins are PCGS/NGC+CAC’d and priced BELOW $1,000.00).

Our biggest sale to a collector was for a coin in excess of $100,000.00. We generally only do sales like that at FUN or ANA. But that sale came on Saturday via email-the collector had seen the coin Friday at the show. At the same time that sale was being confirmed, we sold a PCGS MS65 High Relief WHOLESALE. We did no other business Saturday. When we added up, our table and agent sales, we did some serious business. However we will not claim this was a great show or a rousing success-it needs a lot of fine tuning. The middle days were very boring and lifeless for us. In all fairness, it was the first show.

One other thing we must note: for us, buying was beyond horrible. We have done more purchasing at tiny one day weekend shows. People won’t believe this, but our favorite purchase from the show was a lightly cleaned 70CC $1. Its in a PCGS genuine holder, but it sure looks AU to us! And its NOT dark like most tend to be. Yes, we did buy other coins (like a killer 1837 PCGS MS65 25C), but we came no where near spending $100,000.00. There was nothing fresh, new, or really exciting being offered. Good thing we spent $2,000,000.00 during and just after Long Beach! Most great coins seem glued into very strong hands. If you wanted dreck or ugly widgets of course you could buy them.

Many of the smaller dealers we heard were unhappy with how they did. There probably were one or two who did great, but we did not hear that. A lot depended on who you are, what you handled, and if you already had a customer base in the area.

WAS IT THE ECONOMY?

We promised we’d make that call based upon what we saw this show.

We’re still out on the subject. We are not in denial, we just did not like the location (Philadelphia) and think that kept some collectors away. Plus, this show is right smack in the same market as Baltimore. We think in order for this show to really thrive, they need to kill the summer Baltimore Show. The next Baltimore Show is only 45 days away. Plus, GOLD did not help.

Back at the office we were doing blockbuster business. Last week we SOLD $1,200,000.00. More important, we saw several “old friends” who had been MIA for the past year and half buy coins again (five figure coins). Our WHOLESALE biz at the show was VERY strong. The reason for that was we had really cool coins to offer while few others on the floor had anything new or neat.

Had the economy seriously affected the coin market, there is no way we would have done as much business as we did (at the show).

A friend of Legends (a Silicon Valley bad boy) was explaining to how he has been so busy because the “techs” lead the way when there is an economic recovery underway. He also was at the show to spend serious money. He said he thought about which is better, keeping his money in money market or to buy coins when the market is off. He was upset that apparently for nice fresh rare coins, he wasn’t alone with that thinking. Right now, there are no “steals” in better coins-only strong premiums because these days demand clearly outstrips supply!

LISTEN UP GOLD BUGS!

Gold died at this show. How can it die when SPOT is moving up? Easy! The premiums are way too high and the major market makers are flooded with too much product. It appears gold is being driven up by the traders and NOT by real demand.

When the show began, two of the world’s biggest market makers in generics completely stopped buying the stuff. That killed the show for many smaller dealers who rely on selling their generics to raise cash. We heard whispers of “product” dropping as much as 20% shortly. They simply ran the prices to fast and too high and now they are stuck. Too many people are sellers. Demand is weak at the moment for gold generics (all the crisis buying took place a year ago).

THIS WEEK WILL BE A RARE TIME IN THE MARKET WHEN GOLD MAY RISE, BUT YOU CAN ONLY SELL CERTAIN GENERIC GOLD FOR LESS THAN WHAT YOU”LL SEE LISTED ON MANY WHOLESALE SHEETS. AND THATS IF DEALERS ARE EVEN BUYING.

We suggest you watch GEM MS65+ generic gold. There are some exceptional “buys” these days-assuming the coin is all there (we suggest you buy these only with CAC stickers). Overgraded sloppy stuff will always be dangerous to own. We think that once gold stops its unrealistic run, prices will settle fast and trading will resume. You still can’t go out and buy any quantity of MS66 Saints at show or a GEM NON 09D $5 Indian.

LEGEND IS PROUD TO ANNOUNCE TWO MAJOR SALES

Last week Legend sold the #3 (really #2) all time finest PCGS Peace Dollar set intact to a collector. When it takes us years to build incredible sets, we NEVER break them up. Included in the set was possibly the FINEST 1921 (PCGS MS67), a monster 22S+23S+24S PCGS MS66, and the unequalled 1924 MS68. In today’s market, we have not seen any similar coins to even half way recreate this set. The seller did not need the money they simply wanted to expand another part of their collection significantly.

Our real excitement however was from completing one of the coolest sets we have EVER built. Legend is proud to announce the outright purchase (via private treaty) and placement of a 1944 Zinc Cent NGC MS63.
The transaction was in excess of six figures and involved one more coin. This deal came to Legend because of our reputation as no non sense buyers who will write an immediate check.

The coin now resides in the ONLY complete PDS Set we are aware of. Our customer also owns the 44D NGC MS63 and the monster 44S NGC MS66 (the finest of 2 known).

We’ll have other announcements probably all month long in October of cool rarities we have sold. Again, if the economy was bad, we would not be able to sell these coins to so many different collectors.

WE LIVE FOR THIS OCTOBER

There are NO major shows to attend save for COINFEST (which we consider large regional show)! No eight days away. No three straight nights sitting bug eyed in a different time zone watching retreads sell in auctions. We are thrilled we get to take sorely needed break from travel. We also, believe that the market needs this break too.

Dealers can reorganize themselves. Sit back and really cull their inventories, not have the pressure of buying significantly more (something you can’t but help to do at shows and auctions), and just recharge their batteries. We think come November 1st, the market will be in a much better state. The biggest problem at that point will be serious lack of coins to buy. We’ll take that vs. no money and no trading.

COINFEST IS COMING OCTOBER 8-10TH!

Legend is a partner in this show. Jon Lerner works his rear off to produce what we think is a truly “must attend” show. Last year was a huge success and this year we expect it to be even better! We have even ordered up soothing music to be played.

We also wish to thank CAC for making COINFEST the ONLY show it attends. Not only have they chosen to attend, but they accept up to 20 coins for FREE review at the show from collectors ONLY! We have never seen any grading services do that. NOTE: Please be patient in awaiting your coins returns. CAC can only evaluate so many coins per hour. We suggest you arrive early to submit.

This year, we are holding a special QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION with John Albanese at 8:30 AM Saturday. You do not want to miss it. This will be a great chance for you to ask questions about CAC, the market, or just to come listen and learn from what a real world class expert has to say.

Jon Lerner has also informed us PCGS will be accepting submissions at the show, but NOT grading on site.

You will see major dealers in an intimate setting. Stacks will be there in force-they are the official sponsors of this years show. Yes, we will have a table there too. What you won’t see, crackout dealers with no coins on display. We want this to be a totally collector friendly show.

A special treat, for those of you who are C+D Mint fans, author and dealer Doug Winter will be attending. We hope to have a little Q+A session with him too.

All this makes COINFEST a “must attend show”!

WHATS HOT

Early Copper is still RED HOT! Even the non pedigreed duplicates of early dates that hit the market have mostly gone away. Commems have definitely shown signs of life again. DMPL Morgans-if they are graded right. GEM Walkers.

WHAT IS NOT

GOLD-genrics especially. All denomination MS+PR Barber/Seated coinage. Buffalo Nickels. Indian and Lincoln Cents MS+PR. Three Cent Nickels, shield Nickels, and Liberty Nickels MS+PR. Of course everything that’s OVERGRADED.

About the Author

Laura Sperber is one of the Owners of Legend Numismatics. She is a passionate and outspoken dealer who says what she believes and is a strong proponent of numismatic standards. Since 1987. Legend Numismatics has built an unequaled reputation among casual collectors and avid investors alike by locating and procuring top quality rare coins.