A Market Report by Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatics

Long Beach was exactly how we figured it to be-hit or miss. Fortunately for us, it was more of a hit, but not a great hit. The fact that gold crashed a during the show did have an impact on business for many dealers.

THE GOLDBERG SALE

This sale was small and had only one attention grabbing small collection-a dazzling group of Proof Barber Halves in PR66-PR68. Many of the coins has gorgeous colors. it was the kind of killer set Legend loves to buy intact. Too bad they did not offer it as one lot! We did end up buying nearly a dozen pieces. Most of the bigger gold coins in the sale were retreads. There was little excitement otherwise. Prices were mixed as the coins sold for exactly what they were worth (meaning if a coin was 90% all there-it sold cheap).

THE LONG BEACH SHOW

Our expectations were for it to be hit or miss. We could tell early on just by the auctions there would not be many fresh coins available. Because of that sense we did not bring any of our NEWPS from the office. We tried hard, but we did not even spend $100,000.00 at the show (we did spend several hundred thousand between the two auctions). Collectors were not even offering us any coins. It was unbelievably bone dry. Typically, at a strong Long Beach Show we will spend $1 million dollars.

Of course we had our stealth selling team operating (4 dealers). We gave each of the 4 coins that we felt fit their operations the best. Their results were startling. Our number one guy had his BEST Long Beach EVER! His activity was non stop from the time he started before the show began. He handles Type and collector oriented coins. Our #2 seller who handles similar coins, did well too. However, the other two who handle primarily gold-SOLD NOTHING! They were both unhappy campers. One told us at dealer set up, the gold guys did not even want to look. Obviously, things never got better. The WHOLESALE we did ourselves, was very strong.

Overall, there was decent retail traffic. However, we did not hear of any SIMILAR dealers to us doing much in the way of retail sales (again, that’s dealers SIMILAR TO LEGEND).

We rank our show as moderately successful.

THE HERITAGE SALE

Niffty little sale, but definitely not even close to their biggest or best Long Beach auction. They too had a collection as a highlight-a fabulous Gold $1 set. Several of the coins ranked among the finest known and were CAC stickered. Its no secret Legend is well on its way to building the all time FINEST Gold $1 set. So we were thrilled to find 3 coins we were going to buy no matter what: the 1853D NGC MS66 CAC-a coin we never saw anything else like (we paid $65,000.00 hammer), the 1861 PCGS MS67 CAC, and the phenomenal 1875 PCGS MS66 CAC for which we paid a record $109,250.00 for! It was a sale that did have some hidden treasures. However much more important, it was a fairly good indicator of the market. You could tell which coins were on the dreck side and which nice coins had action. The nice coins all brought strong money (and that does include the NICE Gold Dollars).

GOLD

The price of gold falling was like an earthquake. The gold dealers were stunned and wounded. At the beginning of the show we could NOT sell a single gold coins (even a better gold coin). Dealers were either trying to dump or were chatting with each other as to how much they lost dumping. One major player-Heritage pulled their generic bids all together.

Better Gold-which until this show was hot, turned a little sluggish WHOLESALE until about the middle of the show. We did see a GEM PR Stella trade hands in the $180,000.00 range. You could not buy anything really better anyway, there was nothing on the floor! And as you can see from the Heritage sale, rare, fresh, and properly graded gold (like the 1875 $1) still brings all the money. But try to sell something like an 1884S $20 MS63, good luck!

Generics are a disaster. The premiums crashed on many denominations in a day. We think things have already bottomed as we have heard of and experienced ourselves, requests to buy at the new lower levels (EXAMPLE: last week Saints in MS65 were $2,200.00 BID, at the show you could not find any buyer willing to pay more than $1,900.00 for any size quantity-and most market makers were NOT buying at all). The only problem-no one is sure of the levels since there are no bids! At the end of the show, there was a smaller telemarketer walking around trying to buy up MS66 Saints at levels he felt comfortable (which actually were reasonable). Gold action (or lack of) at the show may really have just been one heck of an over reaction. This week we will see where spot goes. In our opinion, we believe what just happened (premiums crashing) was a much needed correction.

As we have said before, BETTER GOLD coins are NOT influenced any more by generic gold. Your GEM Bust Gold, real rare Liberty Gold, and BETTER Saints (like a 1931D MS65) are all still in demand and have NOT fallen in price. In fact, our Want Lists have INCREASED in the past week for RARE gold.

A SUMMATION

Long Beach was a hit or miss show. There still was too much dreck (dreck: overgraded, not eye appealing, problem coins) at the show. At FUN, you were able to see a cool coin here and there displayed. At this show, it seemed everyone has Morgan Dollars, generic gold, or some kind of average or low quality (for the grade) widget. Its hard to get excited. Plus, we go to a show like Long Beach to buy. We are famous for buying anything we like. For us to have spent under $100,000.00 on the floor makes a powerful statement-there are NO coins around! This is why we have been screaming-NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!

There just was not much there to stimulate collectors. And with gold in the dumps. there were only small pockets of dealers who were eager to do business.

The market for TRUE RARE and QUALITY coins is stronger than ever. No one was dumping those.

We will have a very nice offering of NEWPS. It certainly won’t be our biggest. Most of the coins came from small collections we purchased back at our offices. We will NEVER sacrifice quality for quantity. If we can’t find the “right” coins, so be it. And of course, ALL Legend coins offered on our web site are triple checked and will carry a CAC sticker.

WHAT IS HOT?

SAINTS, SAINTS, SAINTS-the Drew Breeze type, not the coin!

Coins that are hot: ANYTHING RARE and QUALITY oriented. Not a coin with a pop of 200 that looks OK. Something like a GEM Bust half with killer looks…DMPL Morgans are in demand again. All GEM Walkers. ALL early Copper-still. PURE QUALITY is what is fueling the market right now.

WHATS NOT HOT?

ALL GENERIC GOLD. ALL SEMI GENERIC GOLD. ALL coins that are not 100% graded right-no matter what holder. Commems seemed to have quieted down again. Small cents are not having any massive demand. MS Seated and Barber coins.

Related posts:

1. Feb 2009 Long Beach Show Report By Doug Winter
2. Doug Winter Market Report – Spring Long Beach
3. THE PORTLAND ANA MID WINTER SHOW
4. Expectations For The Coming Long Beach Show
5. Baltimore Show Report by Doug Winter
6. The Long Beach Show – Legend’s Market Report Feb 2009
7. Doug Winter – 2009 FUN Show Report
8. The May Long Beach Show: A Report
9. Doug Winter Market Report – Long Beach Feb 2008
10. Legend Market Report – Sept. 08 Long Beach Show