By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

Well its not really the summer just yet, but by the way this show was you’d think it was the middle of July!

As always, we have nothing but great things to say about Mary Counts and David Chrenshaw (of Whitman Publishing) and staff for unquestionably putting together a great show. They have everything well organized for both dealers and the collecting public. They have made the Baltimore Show a “must attend” event for everyone.

WAS THE BALTIMORE SHOW HOT?

Sadly, this show was not to be one of their best. We do NOT hold Whitman at fault. It was more market factors and timing (Long Beach was less than 2 weeks ago). Not very many national level dealers attended (many West Coast dealers stayed home). We did not hear of many dealers having even good shows. Our show overall ended up better than we thought-but we were very disappointed in our retail sales. Better gold coins in MS63 and higher made up over 75% of our sales.

Not many dealers had expected this to be a good show. Typically when that happens, the show usually turns out ok. This time, it did not. The strongest activity occurred BEFORE the show with dealer to dealer WHOLESALE. Once the show opened for set up-things immediately died down. It seemed many of the dealers in the room simply did not want to buy and were more intent of selling and raising cash. However, they seemed to be “stuck in mud” because they refused to face reality and sell their coins at the new market levels. Thus activity stalled out. We had never heard so many dealers moaning that they had sold NOTHING as of Saturday morning.

The last few shows have had unexpected results. The CSNS Show back in May was clearly one of the all time WORST shows ever. Typically it is one of the best of the year. This year it was a dead ghost town. Dealers had high expectations going in to it. Then there was Long Beach only 2 weeks ago. The reputation of that show has been greatly fading. But this time, it was a an unexpectedly strong show for many. Attendance was dramatically up and both dealers and collectors wanted to buy coins. Our impression was most dealers had a good LB show (do note that during the show gold was making strong moves upward towards $980.00).

WHERE IS THE MARKET TODAY?

The Baltimore Show should NOT be used as a gauge to the market. Too many market makers were not there. Attendance was lighter because of that and the timing (many people also know to avoid downtown Baltimore in the summer).

Life is still terrific on the Internet. Our sales for June are running as strong as ever. Since we got home from Long Beach, we have sold at least 20 coins valued OVER $20,000.00 each! Coins valued in the $5-$9,000.00 range are selling very strong too. We have sensed for the past 2 months that collectors are coming out of hiding and are slowly looking around for good values. They feel better about the economy and the coin market since it’s not anywhere near last year’s highs. What many collectors really wanted, was the speculators gone. Since FUN, they have seen several of the biggest speculators dump their coins via auction and take losses of up to 30%. Now the collectors are happy to buy those dumped coins at today’s new levels.

One of the biggest problems the market still faces is all the dreck. Our definition of dreck is: over-graded, low end, doctored, or just ugly coins. The Baltimore Show was made worse by all the recycled dreck in dealer’s cases. Sadly, the stuff has come down far more than most can stomach. There is virtually no market for an over-graded widget anymore. So that saps the dealer’s liquidity which prevents the market from moving. One common complaint from collectors at most shows these days “nothing fresh, nothing nice, where are all the cool coins?” To confirm how badly this affect the market, just watch what you do not see in the upcoming ANA auctions-fresh large collections for sale. Sure, you’ll a smattering of smaller specialized collections, but most everything else you’ll wonder if you had just seen that somewhere. One major auction company was so desperate for consignments they were offering dealers early payment. Dreck lying around is definitely NOT a positive. Thank goodness the grading services ARE buying coins back and are doing what is needed to make the coins liquid again.

Our biggest problem has not been finding customers. We need coins! Every show we go table to table at least once looking at what is available. The lack of quality material and coins to fill our Want Lists is what hurts our bottom line. Even commoner coins in certain series we have not been able to locate. The market has grown so much over the past several years no one really stopped to think how many strong hands coins were going to. So until the dreck is gone prices will not substantially move up. We estimate this could take a full year or more to happen. Everyone has been in denial as to how much dreck really has been in the market place. Keep in mind, the grading services have been in operation for 20+ years certifying millions of coins. Take a % of those as bad and that’s a huge number to deal with. And when the market turns tight like today, collectors demand value, so the dreck is all that’s left exposed.

LEGEND NOTES:

Legend has just completed a substantial multi-million dollar deal. While we can’t announce it today, we will tell you that it proves there certainly is a lot of life left in the market! We will be making a major announcement shortly.

We also have had incredible success with sales of coins from the LV Collection of Gold Rarities. Since many of these coins are fresh (having been off the market for many years) and are of top quality, they have been very easy to sell. The price ranges do not seem to matter. What we have offered so far does not even make a dent in what we will be selling from this unbelievable collection. We expect to offer more coins totaling at least $10,000,000.00 by the end of this year.

The collector has been buying rare coins for over 40 years. He has a keen eye and loves great rarities. His success in the business world has allowed him to quietly build up one of the great collections that exists (no, he is not our ‘big guy” who bought the pattern deal). He is not selling off coins because he needs money-he just needs the space!!!! His only requirement from us, we place his coins in good collector homes. He is a reminder to us all that you don’t have to be a registry nut or have your name exposed to assemble one of the all time greatest collections ever. The US Rare coin market is that big with many collectors like him whom quietly exist.

IT IS A TREMENDOUS BUYERS MARKET TODAY

Even when a great coin pops up, its still going to be much LESS than it would have cost you a year ago. In the Bowers Sale at the Baltimore Show there was a fresh 20C 1876CC PCGS AU58. It had one of the coolest pedigrees possible-dating back to 1876. We were the under-bidders on it as it sold for $207,000.00. We are positive there were multiple bidders on the coin between $125-$150,000.00 a very serious amount of money. Considering this coin was nothing more than a solid AU58, it did achieve a record price. Still, it represented a major opportunity.

There are MANY series that right now are being over looked. For whatever the reason (as an example), Seated and Barber Type seems to be weak. There are not any quantities available. To build a GEM PR66 Barber Dime set would cost you about $60,000.00 at most. What’s even cooler are most of those coins has finite mintages of LESS than 1000 pieces. MS Seated type is not selling for any crazy money in auctions.

There definitely are good deals to be had. The critical key: you MUST BUY 100% quality or you’ve got nothing. If the coin you buy is 95% all there or has a light putty then the saying among dealers is: cheap is not cheap enough. Once you know a coin is solid for the grade, in this market do NOT be afraid to pay a premium-your still not buying at crazy levels. Plus, this very well could be the bottom of the market. We still feel VERY strongly that the CSNS Show in May was the bottom of the market (although we do expect the summer doldrums to hit July 1-10).

CAC IS HERE TO STAY

There is now no question that CAC is now accepted in the marketplace. We have witnessed many hardcore NON CAC dealers sign up to be members recently. The public has spoken with strong demand about the added protection the green bean offers. Even if you disagree with CAC’s grading (we all know you can put 10 people in a room and get 10 different grades) the majority of people have come to realize that CAC WILL protect them from buying doctored coins. And if a CAC coin is found to have been messed with, CAC does not play games, it will immediately buy back that coin. The coin docs all hate CAC. What CAC has done is killed their market. They still can slide a coin or two past the services, but now-especially on more expensive coins, they have no where to sell them. CAC has done wonders for the Early Gold areas and other heavily tampered with series like generics.

Legend is one of the owners of CAC. We are very proud of the advances the company has made since its founding nearly 2 years ago. We believe CAC’s influence on quality will only help strengthen the market as time goes on. Yes, CAC coins do sell for premiums, but in this tight marketplace that’s loaded with recycled dreck, you need to have help weeding out the bad coins. Do not be afraid make an offer on a coin and request it be sent to CAC for stickering. If the dealer resists, then you should question what is the real problem?

Legend will have a table at the upcoming Chicago Show June 25-27th.

LEGENDS OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED JULY AND REOPEN JULY 13TH. We will be checking our emails periodically as well as phone messages.

We do have a table at the Summer FUN Show in West Palm Beach July 10-11.

WHAT IS HOT?

We can’t believe our eyes! Early silver COMMEMS are clearly showing signs of life after 20+ years in the doldrums. We were wondering how cheap they could get. Choice Bust material. ALL gold coins-everything from generics to six figure rarities. Grades do not matter. Early copper (pre 1855).

WHAT IS NOT HOT?

We stand by the comments Indian and Lincoln Cents are NOT hot. Buffalo Nickels in MS are quiet. Seated and Barber coins MS+PR seem to be sleeping. Morgans (does anyone care about a 98S in MS65 anymore?). And of course all dreck is dead-so dead no one wants to even own the stuff or make offers.

Related posts:

1. THE 2009 SUMMER LONG BEACH SHOW – Legend Market Report
2. Legend Numismatics Baltimore Coin Show Market Report
3. Legend Numismatics Baltimore Spring Show 2008 Market Report
4. Legend Market Report: The 2009 Los Angeles ANA Coin Show
5. Legend Numismatics Market Report: The Fun Show
6. The Pre Baltimore Coin Show Market Report
7. Legend Market Report – THE CSNS SHOW 2009
8. Legend Market Report – Sept. 08 Long Beach Show
9. THE FUN SHOW 2008 – Legend Numismatic Market Report
10. THE SPRING CSNS SHOW – Legend Numismatics Market report