By Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatics

Legend is not used to failure, but publicly we will admit we have in two cases. No, its not in our forever fight to rid the business of coin docs (the services are gaining the upper hand in that fight). We blew it on two simple requests from new customers.

One said he’d like a beautiful GEM MS $10 Indian (non 26 or 32), the other requested we help in building a PR65 Barber Half set. These requests were both recent, and we have only found 2 coins for the Barber set and can’t find that elusive $10 Indian.

Even with all the access we have to coins and with all of our high power connections we can’t locate these coins in NICE condition. We’ve seen a small handful of junky $10 Indians and we weren’t presented with many opportunities on the Barbers. It seems most of the really nice pieces are in solid collector hands. Our standards are strict, but not so insanely strict as to miss the ‘right” pieces. It’s not like we can find numerous pieces being offered of even junk-nothing is out there. Do NOT be fooled by higher populations-remember there are regrades, crackouts, and possibly far more people collecting than what is graded.

We want collectors to take note of our failures not because it gives the chatroom weenies something else to ridicule us about (which they like to do by mere mention of our names), but because we believe it sends a powerful message as to what is NOT out there and the potential of where the coin market could be heading. These should not be hard coins to find-yet today they are. Routinely in our Market Reports we tell you how dry the shows have become. Here we prove this by our failure to secure the $10 Indian and buy several Barbers for the set we are building.

What does this really mean? PRICES WILL HAVE TO GO UP! These coins, just like all the others we are searching for won’t appear unless prices get stronger. This is why when you see a major auction and it has FRESH high grade pieces-they are ALL selling for multiples of what you think they are worth. In cases of true high grade rarities, published prices are bunk and should NOT even be printed (that’s a whole other subject we will get into at a later time).

Our Want Lists total tens of millions of dollars currently. This is no exaggeration. If we have a really good show, we’ll find a coin or two-not several like we used to. Our contacts know we will step up to the plate and pay strong for the “right” coin. These days, at least in our world, paying strong, is not enough. Soon we will all be paying more as demand clearly outstrips supply! Even the coins we buy purely on spec (which is 90% now vs. maybe 40% five years ago) sell so strong within the first 1-2 weeks of them being listed, we actually now keep a small group held back so we can be assured of a good offering.

DEMAND

Just how big is the coin market? No one knows for sure. Our guess, is currently almost 1 million people buy coins via the web in some form or another (dollars spent does not matter). The internet has clearly opened it up and created an international marketplace so big that great coins seem like they are falling into endless black holes never to be seen again. The top national telemarketing firm has OVER 100,000 customers. The top auction house has SEVERAL hundred thousand registered coin buyers-with at least two other auction houses right behind them. Legend has SEVERAL THOUSAND customers including several of the biggest coin buyers who have ever graced the hobby (remember, in 2007 we did a deal for $30+ million to ONE collector). Only 10 years ago, we had 200 customers and the biggest telemarketers had a few thousand customers-not nearly as huge as they are today. And then you have the unknowns-people who simply buy via the internet in scattered places. We believe that eBay’s dominance of the internet has helped bring more people into coins than even the US Mints State Quarter program.

That is partially why the coin market is still thriving during these tough economic times. The demand for true top quality coins have never been stronger. Surprisingly, we do still see new people entering the market. It is clearly proven by the fact you can’t just go out and build a collection of your choosing, or even find a coin like a semi better GEM $10 Indian.

We are not hyping things. We are just stating facts as we have experienced them. People like coins. They are probably the most liquid of any collectable and have one of the highest degrees of historical status. That’s why so many people in the past 10 years have become real collectors. That’s why finding easy coins-has become so hard. And that’s why we must stress: PRICES WILL HAVE TO GO UP!