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All Posts Tagged With: "coin buyers"

Aging Baby Boomers and Rare Gold Coin Prices

By Doug Winter – RareGoldCoins.com

I recently received an email from a collector who asked what I thought were an extremely intelligent group of questions. In a nutshell, he asked the following. As boomers age, are we nearing a bubble in coin prices? At some point will the number of collectors with the financial means to collect rare gold decrease and will prices suffer accordingly?

Go to any coin show and you will see a disturbing trend. The buyers of most “serious” coins (i.e., coins priced at $1,000 and above) are in their 50’s or 60’s and the dealers selling them these coins tend to be at least the same age, if not older. There are not many young collectors at shows and the number of “A” level dealers in their 20’s and 30’s can be counted on one hand. This spells trouble for the coin market, right?

I contend that the answer is not as obvious or as clear-cut as it would seem to be. I am a keen student of the history of the numismatic marketplace and, as far as I can tell, ever since coin collecting became popular in the United States (in the late 1850’s/early 1860’s) it’s been a hobby that mainly attracts older people. Think about it: coins are expensive and people in their 20’s and 30’s have never had enough discretionary income to be making impulsive non-essential purchase. When you are 27 years old, you are thinking about buying a house and saving money for your child’s education; not deciding what series of 19th century gold coin to specialize in.

But the world has changed in the last generation or two and wealth is no longer the exclusive province of the middle-aged and the mature. For the first time that I can remember I have a few good clients who are younger than I am and these collectors tend to be self-made entrepreneurs.

In the 1950’s, many collectors grew old at around the same time and the hobby was in a precarious spot. Lots of great collections were coming on the market at the same time and it seemed unlikely that these coins would be absorbed. For a while, prices were depressed and the short-term outlook of the market was gloomy. But along came the roll craze of the early to mid-1960’s and the market was suddenly reinvigorated by young collectors; some of who became famous dealers who are active to this day.

In the mid to late-1970’s the same trend was occurring. Collectors were graying and lots of coins were coming on the market. All of a sudden, precious metals prices began to boom and lots of new blood came into the market. Two decades later it was the State Quarter program that jumpstarted a moribund market. Again and again, we have seen cycles of demand in the coin market and when things appeared gloomy, something would happen that infused youth into the hobby.

The X factor in today’s market—and the future coin market(s)–is, of course, the Internet. Unlike in 1960 or 1980 or in 1990, it will be easier to replace this generation of graying numismatists with younger buyers due to the accessibility of information and the ease of purchasing rare coins on-line. And there is another factor that I believe will come into play as well: foreign buyers.

As is well-known, huge middle-class and upper-class populations are being created in China and India. These are countries with an interest in American culture and cultures that greatly prize gold. It is possible (not likely, but possible) that new markets for American gold coins could develop in these countries and this, of course, would greatly change the dynamic of the future coin market.

My guess is that some time in the next decade or so, we will see a significant change in the demographics of the coin market. Many of today’s “super-collectors” are going to be net sellers in a decade or so and it is certainly possible that prices at some point could drop in the short-term. But if this scenario occurs, I think it is highly possible that this dip will be short-lived and that a new generation of eager collectors will fill the void.

Coin Rarities & Related Topics: Collections of Claude Davis and Brandon Smith, Coin Pricing and Government Regulation

News and Analysis regarding scarce coins, coin markets, and the coin collecting community #10

A Weekly Column by Greg Reynolds

After writing about two collections in the Boston ANA auction to be held in August, I will address the topic of ‘overpricing.’ A vocal U.S. Congressman has called for government regulation of rare coin and bullion businesses. He has attacked one prominent seller of bullion and modern coins as having overpriced some of their coins and he seems to imply that the Federal Government should combat overpricing, presumably with price controls. In my view, while such overpricing of bullion coins and of other common coins occurs, his approach is flawed and counter-productive. Moreover, government regulation of prices would make trading less efficient and would not substantially lessen the extent to which careless, or mentally incompetent, coin buyers are harmed. Please see my discussion below.

I. The Collection of Dr. Davis

Please read last week’s column for general remarks regarding upcoming events in Boston and prior columns for discussions of very rare coins that will be auctioned. Furthermore, I will soon write about Dr. Duckor‘s collection of Barber Halves, which is, indisputably, the all-time best collection of this series. Duckor’s halves will be auctioned during Heritage’s Platinum Night event on Wed. August 11, as will many coins from the collection of Dr. and Mrs. Claude Davis. In my column of July 7th, I discussed a few of the coins in the Davis collection. There are many more in the ANA auction.

Todd Imhof, Executive Vice President of Heritage, relates that Dr. Davis “started collecting coins in the 1930’s!” Further, Imhof remarks that Dr. Davis “is perhaps best known for putting together the famous Foxfire Type Collection that sold intact a number of years ago.” My (this writer’s) impression is that the Foxfire type set consisted mainly of coins that were (and mostly still are) NGC graded from MS-65 to MS-67. Indeed, some or all of these were placed by the NGC in holders with the name ‘Foxfire’ on the respective inserts. I have seen only copper and silver coins that are pedigreed to the ‘Foxfire’ collection. I remember the “Foxfire” NGC graded MS-66 1818 quarter, for example, that Heritage auctioned in Feb. 2008 and, again, in May 2009.

Dr. Davis has consigned a much more extensive type set and other coins to the upcoming Boston ANA auction. Imhof reveals that “Dr. Davis, after completing and selling the Foxfire collection, went back into collecting Type coins in a more moderate grade range. He loves high-end AU specimens and felt that grade often represented super value.”

There are many coins in the Davis collection that are graded AU-55 or -58 by the PCGS or the NGC. One example that imaged well is an 1829 half dime that is PCGS graded AU-58 and has a sticker of approval from the CAC. Likewise, the Davis 1815 quarter is PCGS graded AU-58 and CAC approved. The online images of this quarter look marvelous. It is necessary, though, to view a coin in actuality, or have an expert do so for you, to draw firm conclusions about its physical characteristics.

One of the most important coins in the Davis collection and in this ANA auction overall is the Atwater-Hawn 1797 half dollar. The Draped Bust obverse (front), Small Eagle (reverse) halves of 1796 and 1797 are the rarest silver type coins. The William Atwater collection, which B. Max Mehl sold in the mid 1940s, is one of the twenty greatest U.S. coin collections of all time.

The eminent collector Reed Hawn assembled landmark collections of several series, especially quarters and halves. The 1913 Liberty Nickel that was auctioned in January was previously owned by Reed Hawn. (Please click here to read my article about it.) Hawn’s halves were auctioned by Stack’s in 1973. Like the two Davis collection coins just mentioned above, this 1797 half is PCGS graded AU-58 and has a CAC sticker.

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Deal Shopping and Rare Coin Prices

By Doug Winter – RareGoldCoins.com

I had an interesting experience at the Long Beach show that I thought was worth sharing. A new-to-the-market collector/investor came up to my table and asked to see my “best coins.” I was happy to share them with him and pulled out a gorgeous 1802 quarter eagle in PCGS AU58 and a lovely 1798/7 eagle in PCGS AU55. After some back-and-forth negotiating, I could see this deal was not going to get done. The reasons why it didn’t are what I want to briefly discuss.

1864-S_Eagle_winter_091509_saleNow let me say in advance that the individual that I was dealing with is younger than I am, better looking than I am, smarter than I am and without a doubt much, much richer than I am. He’s someone whose family has had tremendous success investing in other areas and he is a recent convert to the rare coin market. But I think he’s approaching coins from a totally wrong perspective……………

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