Consolidation in reverse! I expected a few firms to fold and smaller dealers to shut. Out of the blue comes the mega merger of Stacks and Bowers and Merena. I was not so shocked because for the last 3 years it had been no secret I tried to talk the owners into selling Stacks to Legend. The apparent loss would have been too great and doing a deal this way, they get a shot at some stock that could go up. Regardless, I feel it was a tragic end to once powerful and glamorus dealership.

It is my strong opinion, in this mergers case, bigger is NOT better for the coin market. Why? We already have one mega monster firm who obviously has reached their limits-Heritage. They know they can’t expand any more with in coins, so they did the smartest thing, branched out into other areas. I give them tons of credit for that because it seems as they grow, they do not forget their roots and promote coins to this new crowd.

To satisfy two large auction companies with huge staffs, where are all the coins going to come from? These firms need expensive coins to generate large fees. If these firms on their own were not getting much prior, where are the coins going to come from after the merger? Think about how big each firms overheads are. Will fees rise? Will coin values artifically inflate because of excessive tiny demand with each auction?

This new mega merger concerns me. My goal in going after Stacks was not to make it bigger-just better. In my opinion, the potential of Stacks combining with Legend was huge. I believe it would have greatly benefited collectors. I do admit, I was nervous about where the consignments would come from, but Legend has sold OVER $600,000,000.00 RETAIL so we have some contacts. I have always viewed owning an auction company as a natural extension for us and our customers. Unfortunately, I do not have the time or energy to try again to enter the auction field from scratch. I saw the demise of Stacks as inevitable. I would have loved to have fixed it. It is frustrating to me ownership decided to end the misery this way. When I was told about it I was angry for one second and have moved on. Now I just wonder if bigger is really better? And how will it effect the marketplace?

I do wish The B+M team good luck in their merger. Greg Roberts, CEO of Spectrum is one of the sharpest executives in this business.

FUN

My prediction is that FUN will be a good show. Out of the clear blue, collectors were buying strong in December-a time when they normally fade away. Yet again, only supply was the problem. So if nothing else, dealers will need to replenish at FUN.

Gold coins are still screaming crazy hot. Prices are NOT moving up, but collectors do want them. We think 2011 will be the tell tale year for gold. It will be interesting to say the least.

The Heritage Sale will be insane-espcially the RARE PROOF GOLD. The best way to determine how the market is-watch what the really FRESH material does. The B+M Sale has the Malibu Collection. I predict strong prices for that too. The demand is clearly bigger than the supply of great coins right now. Thats why I am so perplexed at how TWO HUGE auction houses can survive and thrive. Maybe I just do not know economics.

LEGEND AND THE MARKET

2010 was a surprisngly good year for us. Legend was profitable. We sold $45,000,000.00 worth of coins to collectors. That figures does NOT include our auction representation. I am also extemely proud to say we sold over 10,000 INDIVIDUAL McClaren coins (that is a ton of coins!). Those ranged from $100.00 to $2,000.00 each. Our market is really the highest graded rarities, but with McClaren, we sold as many smaller coins as anyone. We are NOT just a dealer who sells expensive coins! Legend definately was a market leader in most catagories.

In 2011, I can promise Legend will NOT look to get bigger. I have turned down requests to grow. Our formula is perfect or close to it. We will probably add a person, but our plans are to be BETTER, not bigger. I really do not see the room to grow. I had trouble supplying coins to collectors in 2010, so I have no idea where I would find additional coins to cover a larger overhead.

Financially, we are as big as anyone. Maybe thats why we buy tens of millions of dollars from the public each year quickly and quietly. If any size deal comes up (try us on a $100 million), Legend can easily buy it. We are one of the biggest market makers of CAC coins. We are no nonsense when it comes to how we deal. We are also loyal as heck to people who are the same to us (we have MANY customers who date back to the late 80’s still active with us). Unlike other firms, George and I have been partners since 1986, and Bruce since 1997. If you notice, most other firms are revolving doors trying to act stable. There is something to be said for longevity of a partnership in the coin field. The only thing we lack, the ablitity to make up good stories to fool people. Sorry, thats just not our style. Also, you can find a copy of our Mission Statement on our web site.

My point, the beginning of 2011 you will see many changes with dealers. Currently, there are a few bigger retail dealers who are operating pretty much dead broke. You WILL see them fail, so do NOT be surprised. There will be a consolidation-which will be healthy. I was just stunned that an expansion (Stacks and B+M) could try and happen in this enviornment.

Back to looking out the window. Since I started writing this over 4 inches of snow have piled up (an hour and half) ! The winds are now easily 40 MPH plus. Can’t see the beach. Nothing like a good blizzard to stimulate me to write a Hot Topics!

Everything said in this article is the sole opinion of the author and not any other member of Legend Numismatics.

Any comments or questions please feel free to email me at: lsperber1@hotmail.com.

Related posts:

1. Ruling Allows Odyssey Shipwreck Cases to Move Forward
2. United States Mint Moves Forward to Create a Modern Ultra-High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin
3. Malibu Collection Part II Anchors Bowers and Merena’s January 2011 Rarities Sale

2010

What a year it was. We saw gold hit a new record and the stock market made a semi come back. The coin market had what I would call a turbulent but productive year. Prices did not go up as much as good coins weren’t being drowned by dreck anymore. There actually has been a small influx of new collectors.

It was also great year in the sense of we dragged certain taboo subjects (like gradeflation, coin doctoring, etc) through the mud and brought them out in the publics eye in the nick of time. While the bad guys all have been pissed off, it unquestionably has given the collecting public a better feeling and renewed sense we can self police ourselves and that some of the “leadership” of the hobby does indeed care. Consumer confidence is critical to having coins rise in value and maintaining a healthy marketplace.

I do NOT regret saying or doing what I did to help make coins and the coin market a better place.

COIN DOCTORING

Exposing how bad the coin doctoring issue had become, was by far the MOST important POSITIVE thing to have happened. Had everyone just kept their heads turned and let these criminals rape coins and the coin market, it would have killed the hobbies future.

PCGS took a heroic lead in firing off a lawsuit with absolute hard evidence against a small crew. Other coin small to mid size docs took notice and are running scared. Now, PCGS is coming out with even more sophisticated technology to catch these guys and hopefully make them stop forever. I knew this was a critical problem when the Kutasi Collection of $10’s and $20’s was sold a few years ago and the putty was so thick on many coins sometimes you could not see all the details! I do not regret standing up and speaking out about this subject when it was really taboo to do so. Just passing on a coin certainly was not stopping the doctors fromtheir reign of destruction. In my opinion, destroying a coin should be considered a full criminal act. These low lifes are taking away the few pieces of original history we have and are slowly ruining our enjoyment of collecting. They deserve to be harshly punished and shamed.

The grading services are definately doing their share to work on the problem, however I am disgusted with so many retail dealers who will not speak out. No, its not just the lame PNG (next topic), but the dealers who want to be your friends, the ones who can’t grade for crap, or have huge web sites. They are greedy cowards in my book, worth no more than the bad slabs they sell. There needs to be a shake out of these people.

I know there is still a long, long way to go in this fight. A few major firms who still employee doctors are still quietly practicing thinking they are just too big to tackle. I believe in 2011 they will be exposed and will fall. Its a matter of compiling more evidence. They certainly have been frustrasted at the very least in 2010. At least this issue is moving forward and not backwards. I hope this year to get more people speaking out. EVERY voice is important-no matter what size collector you are!

THE PNG

I am proud to have publically called the PNG WORTHLESS. Even thought they have accused me of “grandstanding for publicity” I will be on them until they either shut down or do something positive. They did invite me to a board meeting this year. All I heard was they had to be “reactive” and could not be “proactive”. I had told them about a very potentially disasterous event that could happen-and I know they have done nothing to change their by laws about how a certain field within coins operates. The excuses flowed and still do on all subjects of importance.

Six months or so after 3 of their members had coin doctoring lawsuits against them what have they done? NOTHING! They claim to have revamped their rules? Thats BS, There are still coin doctors who are members. Thats unquestionable PROOF they have taken no visible action on the subject.

My stance on the PNG will remain the same because they will remain the same. They choose NOT to do anything-there is NO excuse for thiem to be this way, period. They are a total disgrace for not fighting coin doctoring harder than anyone. I see no reason the PNG as a group means anything to coin collectors (I am NOT saying all individual members are bad). I promise that until I see movement in the right direction, I will point out every stupid thing they do (like having a PNG day at Houston with 5 tables). The PNG certainly does not represent me as a dealer and I am proud NOT to be a member.

In 2011 I am going to push for better leadership of the hobby. The ANA needs to step up too and do more to protect its collecting body.

CAC

Of course I am going to make a comment about CAC. CAC has survived and thrived from its start up period to become one of the most influential groups that helped stablize and create a huge positive for the coin market.

2010 was CAC’s year. Its acceptence is massive and is now fully ingrained in the marketplace. CAC coins are now traded on the major CCE dealer exhange. The naysayers have been silenced across the board. Unless you are selling major “fresh old time collection”, CAC coins by far bring the MOST money. Why? Coins with CAC stickers are trusted. Think about where the coin market would be without CAC. You’d have great coins fetching LESS, consumer confidence would be at an all time low, and we’d be losing even more collectors (more than just normal market attrition). CAC has been a critical step in helping the marketplace be self policed (for lack of a better term). I’m sure the chatroom weenies will have a field day with me on this, but facts are facts.

The ONLY people who still dislike CAC are the ones who CAC is costing money. Well isn’t that too bad?

Legend Numismatics and its three partners, Laura Sperber, George Huang, and Bruce Morlean are ALL proud shareholders in CAC.

LEGEND DID SOMETHING UNPRECIDENTED

The highlight of my year was placing the final piece in an impossible to finish puzzle-the 1C 1943D. Our good friend and customer Bob Simpson now has the ONLY possible complete set of 1943 Copper 1C. It will be on display at the PCGS table at FUN.

For those of you who have snickered about this transaction, your thoughts are wrong. This was not just a case of a rich person buying something at a crzy price to have it. Mr. Simpson has been a lifelong coin collector. In his teens he thought he had found a 43 copper 1C. He still has it to this day-not totally sure it is fake. His dream was to always own a real one, so when the chance came up to complete the set-he had to do it. This set was built from his heart. I was able to get him a 43S (which had been mine) and a 43 P early on. We knew where the 43D was. It took us 4 years to buy it! Do you really think he wanted to pay a ransom to get it (hence the 4 years of back and forth)? There had been other genuine $1 million dollar offers made on the coin. The key to the transaction was that all monies went to charity. No one seems to read that. Mr Simpson did not just buck up and spend $1.7 million on a copper 1C to be the only kid on the block with one, there always was more to it!

So in the end, we completed the impossible. After handling just about EVERY major classic rarity, completion of this set was something I never dreamed of and I rank it as the highlight of my career! I can’t imagine what I can do to top this.

2011

I will be here writing away at what I see is wrong with the market or the players in the market. I’m not going to stop and sugar coat things, that certainly will not make bad situations change. I’ll leave that for others. I will do what I can to make coins and the coin market a enjoyable and safe hobby.

I’ll continue to “call it like I see it” because I am person who deeply LOVEs coins. I have no appologies to those people who do not like what or how I say things. They do not have to come here and read what I write. Maybe instead of knocking me, why don’t some of you take a public stand or do something about the subjects I comment on, or on things you see are wrong?

Besides all the rough stuff, I do believe 2011 will be a great year for coins. Instead of the dreck still crashing (I do not know how much lower that stuff can go), good coins will finally be free of the dreck and will actually move up in price. People did not realize that what really happend in 2010 was dreck crashed and good coins really held firm, they did not really go up. Plus, I think the worst is over for the economy and we’ll see some people who sat on the sidelines start to buy again.

After a few years of misery, I do see a light at the end of the tunnel finally. I feel like we are only half way though through the tunnel, but our speed is picking up. Things really are getting better.

Now, if only some coins would come on the market!

You can always email me at lsperber1@hotmail.com. Due to upcoming heavy travel I might be be slow in responding.

Related posts:

1. Numismatic Landscape – Commentary by Laura Sperber
2. Laura Sperber Meets with PNG Board to Discuss Coin Doctoring
3. COIN PRICING GUIDES – Commentary by Laura Sperber

Hidden GEM at the show: there is a full time massage therapist in the lobby. With all the stress on the bourse, taking a break for 10 minutes and getting a massage was so relaxing and helpful.

LEGEND SPENDS $2,000,000.00

We did not realize how much we spent until we got home and added it up. This figure includes The Stacks and Bowers Sales, and the spending damage we did on the bourse floor. Keep in mind, this is real money. Legend would not put up its own money or endanger our customers monies if we felt the market was weak or had issues.

At the Stacks sale there was an interesting group of fresh proof coins. Legend by far did the most buying. We proudly purchased (and saved them from the coin doctors) the $10 1913 PCSG PR66 CAC ($80,500.00)+$20 1913 PCGS PR65 CAC ($103,500.00). One day we would LOVE to tell you where they went as it would PROVE the depth and reach of the US coin market all over the world! Other highlight purchases: the $10 1888 PCGS PR65 Cameo and the $20 1906 PCGS PR65 Cameo. All these went to different collectors.

Prices were very strong at the Stacks sale. The nicer the coins, the stronger the premiums went. We saw some coins sell for prices as much as 3 grades higher! The marketplace is starved for fresh coins.

The Bowers Sale was crazy. We had sold many of the MS Seated Half Dollars to the collector who formed the Malibu Collection. We figured there might be a little softness and we could get some good deals. NOT! We bought ONLY about 3 halves-and the 43O PCGS MS65 CAC we sold to a collector at lot pick up! The prices were “moon” money and beyond. You had two clear cut collectors competing, us (we were buying for collectors NOT building sets), another high end dealer representing a collector, and at least one party who LOVES rare CAC stickered coins and is not specifically a Seated Half Collector (we did confirm this individual was bidding). It is interesting to note that a NON Seated half Collector would pay such strong prices. This party thinks “outside the box”. His coin purchases from this sale over the years will be as astute just as if he were building one of the finest collections of Seated Halves. He understands, you can’t be scared to stretch when great coins with low to no pops are available.

Our highlight purchases from Bowers included the monster 1851 PCGS MS62 Slug (ex Amon carter) $316,250.00. Of all of our auction purchases, this was the ONLY coin we really stole. We had been prepared to pay up to $400,000.00 hammer! We also purchased the ultra rare and grossly undervalued $3 1877 PCGS PR65 DCameo CAC. We’re helping build a PR $3 collection that is now only 4 coins short of completion! We had to pay up, but we bought just about ALL the CAC MS 64 Seated Dollars for addition to a collection we are exclusively building. The gorgeous 25C 1916 PCGS MS67+ CAC was one we lost on. It sold for $195,500.00 in Bowers. The same coin at the 2010 ANA Boston auction (less than 3 months ago) brought $149,500.00. It was simply a coin that fell thought the cracks at ANA (everyone thought it would go for crazy money, so why bother bidding). At BOTH auctions, Legend was the under-bidder! We still regret not buying the coin-for inventory!

A note about Bowers, they have a new, young, and VERY aggressive staff. They attended to the smallest details for us and even tolerated our diva like behavior (we needed plenty of caffeine to last thru a 1600 lot session) and did what ever we needed to be comfortable. We do believe they will be true powerhouse in the next year (especially if they keep getting killer fresh collections like Malibu).

One thing we feel is extremely important to note about our auction purchases: all the coins mentioned went to different people. There were many more coins purchased buy us that will never make our web site. When FRESH material that’s nice come around, we are there. We only represent people who understand and are willing to do what it takes to secure these types of coins. Paying 10-20, even 30% too much today, is nothing as compared to seeing these items return 200-1000% in years to come! Plus, the like the 1877 $3, when will you ever see another true GEM that is also CAC’d? There still are plenty of buyers out there!

Dealers inventories were still drab and really full of dreck. Had you asked us before the show if we expected to buy well, we’d have told you no. The stars all aligned and we even had some absolute killer coins walk up to the table from collectors. We were very aggressive and ended up buying coins that ranged from a pop 1 fantastic Gold rarity to a six figure GEM! You will see the difference between what we will be offering this week and next vs the “stuff” other dealers have.

THE BALTIMORE SHOW-SELLING

Upfront and honest: we did extremely well WHOLESALE. We had our stealth team of 3 out on the floor and our associate Julie at the table and on the floor. Combined they sold well into six figures. Also, many of the coins sold brought strong money. However our sales to collectors at the show were weak. At no time did we have a crowd at the table. We know it was hit or miss for others too. If you had collector oriented coins, you did awesome. If you had high end rare coins like us, the results were the same according to others we spoke too. Can’t really explain it. The auctions certainly did not show any weakness. We do realize not every show will be a home-run.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

There seems to be a funny thing happening to the market. Consumer confidence is growing MUCH stronger. Its not just that collectors like hearing the coin doctors are on the run, gradeflation is being dealt with, or that CAC exists. What we are seeing all of the sudden are collectors (yes, real collectors) who are moving outside their typical areas and buying better coins. They are doing this because they do not want to be sitting on cash. They want tangible items. Not fully trusting stocks or even real estate, many are turning to buying more and better coins. Its a very important and interesting phenomena that we’ll have to monitor. No, it is NOT the return of the dreaded investors.

We were worried that Want Lists for collectors were so long and not being filled that they would get tired and walk away. NOT! In fact, its making more people switch to areas they can complete or at least build forever (like Type sets). Some people are finally doing what we have been suggesting forever, simply buying nice cool coins-without a theme.

In the upper tier or more expensive items (over $25,000.00), we can tell you consumer confidence and buying is strong as ever. No one we have encountered is thinking short term buying or looking for quick profits. We can not stress enough how important that is.

GOLD

Gold is still going up. Of course there are many geniuses who believe gold will hit $2-$5,000.00. Us, we do not know. If we did, we’d be writing this from our yacht off Hawaii! We do think gold will keep rising a bit more. The correction we predicted was short and small. We think there could be another, but now that the elections are over, people are not really liking what they see.

We still recommend MS66 Saints. They are the best “bang” if the price of gold really pops (meaning the premium will rise). The next thing we like-a simple gold Type set. The beauty of that-it can be loaded with common dates or rarities. MS 62 or MS67 coins. And if numismatic coins scare you, buy American Gold Eagles. There are plenty of ways to play the gold market.

Right now the premiums on generic gold are ridiculously low. There is a serious over supply of dreck, but at some point you expect it to be absorbed. Last November and December gold and the rare gold coin market were strong. We fully expect the price of gold to stay up and no question, the rare gold market WILL get even stronger this year!

WHATS HOT

HIGH GRADE Commems! Finally! The B+M sale has a collection of decent coins. MS Seated Halves and Dollars-just check the B+M Auction. ORIGINAL GEM PR Gold. ALL Bust coins. Walking Liberty Half Dollars. Patterns, we should know, every day we have been selling a decent amount (plus is you follow auctions, they prices are definitely firming).

WHATS NOT HOT

MS Indian cents in high grade. Morgan Dollars seem to be a bit quiet. dreck or average coins. To quote a major dealer ” if its not fresh and cool, nobody wants it”. 3C Nickels have quieted down too.

Related posts:

1. Legend Numismatics Baltimore Coin Show Market Report
2. Legend Numismatics Baltimore Spring Show 2008 Market Report
3. THE BOSTON ANA SHOW – Market Report by Legend Numismatics

MY HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED!

NOT! I can not believe how lethargic and pathetic the leadership of the coin business has become. PCGS launched their lawsuit back in May. Other than scaring the greedy bastards into slowing their dirty deeds-NOT MUCH ELSE HAS HAPPENED. No hobby groups have stood up what so ever and done anything about the situation. The attitude among dealers still seems to that the grading services are there to be abused.

I think its a crime that the best the PNG could do is announce they have a definition of coin doctoring. Whuppie! Did they do anything? Apparently not a damn thing. They are hiding behind the lamest of lame excuses (they are a reactionary, not proactive group). The perpetrators named in the suit got caught (by their own stupidity) still trying to ruin coins yet again recently (the evidence was even posted in Coin World). Even better, at the ANA Show this past summer one of the parties in the suit set up and proudly displayed his PNG banner at his table! What a slap in the face to those of us who do care. I know the PNG’s time has come and gone. They do nothing and are nothing for this coin biz-in MY opinion. Their PNG Days prior to major shows not only have become a show case for the parts of their membership they refuse to punish, they are a complete joke anyway (one must be invited for admission-how arrogant and stupid). I hope the PNG tries to prove me wrong about their total waste and ineffectiveness.

My head hurts from shaking so much after seeing what they are NOT doing! Besides, we all know its not the entire group of PNG dealers who are bad-so where are the innocent ones? You telling me they have little to no powers on these critical issues? Just more of a point about the bad dudes who apparently control that organization. if they wanted too, they could chase after and maybe even prevent coin doctoring-btye clearly choose not too. Looks like I will never have to pay $1,000.00 I promised for anyone the PNG catches and expels for coin doctoring. Yeah PNG, I am grandstanding for attention (NOT)! -at least I am not sitting on the sidelines with rose colored glasses doing nothing about all this!

Its not just them. I have only seen a handful of smaller dealers-the ones who get screwed by the coin docs perpetually stand up and make statements. Where are all the other big shot retailers? Why I am the lone wolf speaking out? But then I guess when you have a coin doc who sits behind your table and who sells you a lot of coins cheap your not going to complain about them. This doesn’t rock the boat culture has to change. Its for the good of the hobby for the long term.

READ THIS AND WEEP

Many people ask me why I do not like so many other dealers. It has nothing to do with them being competition. It has to do with them not caring or worse, they are phonies. One of the problems in today’s coin market place-many of the “newer” dealers just can not grade. That’s right, give them a raw coin out of the holder and they are clueless. Sadly, they have the best web sites and act like they are kings and hook the public. They are just one more means keep to the coin doctors longevity going. These unqualified dealers certainly are not going to be involved in stopping the coin docs. But we can make them change since they are too dumb to know what to do. Yet again, I call for more public scrutiny of dealers.

Like it or not, CAC coins are helping close the coin doctoring issue. Before all the chat room chimps start how this is nothing but a pro cac ad or lecture in disguise-I say shut up and go buy your puttied, cloroxed, and doctored coins and then lose 60% when you sell. Your opinions through out the years have been non constructive and just gossipy oriented. If you all haven’t noticed (I’m sorry, refuse to notice), CAC has become firmly entrenched and is more than widely accepted in the marketplace. I can state for a fact that the submissions to CAC right now are at record levels. In fact, I do not know of many bigger buyers who will buy a coin that won’t CAC anymore.

I know the grading services dislike CAC-but they need to grow up. CAC is NOT there to hurt them, Its there to help and has. CAC also has more than proven it is NOT out to make money off the grading/doctoring problems. The ONLY reason some dealers like to still slam CAC is just because they are afraid their days of free wheeling destruction are now numbered.

The more people who demand CAC coins, the LESS the coin doctors will be successful. The grading services can not stop the coin doctors on their own. CAC is forcing the marketplace to stop them by keeping money away from bad coins. So why does not every retail dealer believe in CAC? Because they deal with coin doctors or they go out to dinner with them and consider them friends. I dunno, if my friend was polluting where I live intentionally and refused to stop, they wouldn’t be my friend much longer. I think its a disgrace if you sell coins to the public and you do not care what you sell.

Maybe you won’t always agree with a sticker on a coin, but one thing CAC does assure you of-you will NOT buy a doctored coin. As I said before, the CAC marketplace is huge, if your dealer isn’t willing to handle CAC now, you need to make them fess up to their real motives. If they do not want to speak up against their buddies, then why are aren’t they selling coins that have been double checked to you-its a less confrontational way out??

The public should NOT deal with people who just do not care. In my opinion, if your dealer does not believe in CAC to some degree-they are a problem. It clear that CAC is and will continue to be a major warrior with the grading services in the fight against con doctors.

PAINFUL

I predict the next 2-3 years will be extraordinarily painful to the core of coin business-the dealer community. But, its our own fault. We took our eyes off the most important thing: the coins themselves. Now its payback time to clean the mess up. And I do firmly believe the mess if fixable-but there has to be a bigger swell of support to make it happen (or happen faster). And many dealers (and dealer organizations) have to change dramatically. Their mindsets are truly disgusting.

What about all the bad coins? Someone will have to eat them. Eventually they will end up in genuine holders and be valued correctly by the market. That’s not horrible. In fact, its much safer and makes for a far more healthier and efficient marketplace.

I am just disgusted over this whole mess and how dealers (especially) have reacted. I know the public and its pocket book can have far more influence than a PNG whimpering to its members not to doctor coins. Its painfully evident that change won’t come from the majority of my fellow retail dealers either. Some how, there needs to be far more support from them to make the bad guys stop. I believe more than ever the public has to use its dollars and voice to do it. It really is time everyone starts getting spanked who does not care.

The public needs to keep the pressure on. I know everyday I do whatever I can to make the coin market a safer and stronger place. None of us who care can afford to rest.

FINAL NOTE: I went to the dictionary to look up the spelling of irrelevant-and I was surprised the #1 definition was the PNG!!!! Yeh, I am fed up!

If anyone has any comments, please email me at lsperber1@hotmail.com.

THIS ARTICLE IS SOLEY THE OPINION AND COMMENT OF LAURA SPERBER

Related posts:

1. Laura Sperber: 2010 IN REVIEW-MY VISION
2. Numismatic Landscape – Commentary by Laura Sperber
3. Laura Sperber Meets with PNG Board to Discuss Coin Doctoring

David Chrenshaw, Mary Counts, Lori Hamrick, and the entire Whitman team run some of the best shows to attend. The Philadelphia Show was yet another incredibly run show. Legend Numismatics LOVE ALL Whitman shows and plan on doing them as long as they are in business.

Everything is always perfectly set up. The Whitman people are incredibly friendly and accommodating. They even care about what dealers want at shows (and of course they show lots of LOVE the public). However,, they need to understand that the Philadelphia market is the same virtually as Baltimore. The Philadelphia Show actually cannibalizes those shows (Baltimore is three times a year). Even if it has to do with planning far ahead, you cannot have a major show on top of another (Long Beach was just last week). Thus, while public attendance was good at the show, few real buyers showed up (you also just had two major auctions at Long Beach). Of course very few West Coast dealers attended. We did not have a good retail show at all.

Attendance of serious BUYERS (of expensive coins) at coin shows is clearly diminishing. Save for an occasional FUN or ANA Show, it is rare that someone unknown will walk up and buy an expensive coin. We only did THREE retail sales at the show-and the biggest one was set up before hand. This time we tried to speak to a cross section of dealers where we saw collectors at their tables. EVERY ONE told us they ended up doing little in the way of sales. The crowds were mostly tire kickers. Its a little of everything (the market, the Internet, too many shows, etc) that probably caused this.

We really hope ALL show promoters start looking around and maybe even cutting back from 3 to 2 shows. As dealers, it makes no sense to keep shelling out $5,000.00+ per show to be tire kicked. We can all just meet in a hotel and go room to room and save the money and be done in a day. In fact, last Long Beach we actually skipped the show and did just that. The only thing holding us back from giving up our table there: 30 years of habitual attendance. Can’t break the habit. If we saw more serious buying public, then we would not even think of skipping a single show. But all coin dealerships in the end are businesses. Businesses need to make money to survive.

You can argue Philadelphia is only in its second year, but it still needs a huge jump start. Our concern is that this show will have raided the upcoming Baltimore Show. This show proved without a doubt, you can not stack major shows week after week. Maybe cut out the Baltimore summer show (BOTH dealer and collector attendance is MUCH lighter) to make all three shows stronger? The days of “if you build it they shall come” are over. People can sit home and buy coins with just one click. It would be ashame for the public if their favorite dealers had to stop attending shows.

THE PHILADELPHIA SHOW RESULTS

We did a tremendous amount of WHOLESALE. Of course the day before the show opened, it was easy to sell all gold-including BETTER more expensive pieces. Prices were a small concern, but if the coin was really rare and made sense, it sold. Proof Type also sold VERY well for us. In fact, we did not expect to sell much, and we out did our pre-show estimate by 400%!

Much to our surprise as well, we sold a significant amount of Patterns and we sold MANY McClaren coins.

The three retail sales we did were significant. One was an 1885 5C PCGS MS67-the UNDISPUTED FINEST KNOWN (our calibre of coin), the other two were larger Gold and Pattern deals.

Buying was the usual futile effort. We did spend about $250,000.00 on the floor (at a good show, we will spend $1 million plus), but we were not able to buy the types coins we really wanted. Sure, we could buy all the dreck we wanted or widgets (ok, here we go again DRECK is: UGLY, OVER graded, LOW END coins). For the first time, we heard another dealer in high end coins saying how concerned he was nothing is showing up. He was worried how he will fare if he does not find coins to sell. Fortunately, around Long Beach (including back at the office) we were able to buy some very neat smaller deals. We will definitely be offering some special coins this listing and next few weeks!

Sooner or later, prices for BETTER coins, prices WILL go up. Just look at the results from last weeks Heritage auction of the TB Brown Collection (a fresh collection of PR Type that was just graded). The prices went through the roof (example: 3CS 1865 PCSG PR66DC $23,000.00, or the $1 1864 PCGS PR65 Cam $34,500.00). We predict even simple coins like true monster 80S $1 in MS67 will start to fly as the supply is quite limited (again, we are NOT talking about the drecky ones all over the bourse floor). Do note: QUALITY IS CRITICAL. The difference between a high end coin and a low end coin of the same date, same grade, can now be THOUSANDS of dollars. Be VERY careful, what you may think is a bargain, probably is not.

GOLD

Of course the majority of coin dealers and shows will revolve around gold right now. The telemarketers are having a field day and are producing huge orders from a common generics to RARE GEM Proof $20’s.

An interesting trend has happened to generic gold. In MOST cases, the PREMIUMS have DROPPED. How can that be?

While commodity traders are pushing the price of gold up, the supply of generic gold has actually increased. So even though there is strong demand, demand does NOT outweigh supply. In some cases, you have lower grade generics practically selling for melt! Quality has also been another issue. Either people are selling back drecky coins already graded at the new higher levels, or the services are rushing out product that is inferior (we think its the old stuff resurfacing). The public has wised up and pretty much values it as the dreck it is. GEM CAC gold is selling for 20-30% OVER NON stickered coins with out a doubt (we are paying $3,450.00 for CAC Motto Saints vs $2,675.00 for non stickered). The only problem w/the CAC market: NOT ENOUGH coins (demand is huge)! We know the MS66 Saints we had that were NON CAC, were harldy picked up. And when they were, the dealers wanted them as sharply discounted rates. Nothing frustrates us more than gold rising and generics falling.

Better GEM Gold is on fire. Things like Bust Gold, ALL GEM Proof Gold, Gold $1 MS67, $5+$10 Indians in MS64 and higher, better $20’s in GEM are selling fast and for a lot of money. We have confirmed several SMALL “funds” seeking to buy quantities of these types of coins. Telemarketers are turning some of their customers from bullion to rare coin buyers. These are the types of coins that generally buy. If the price of gold stays up, this area could be the best for a huge potential short term bump. The long term looks even better regardless of what happens short term.

We still fully endorse “better” GEM gold for collections (including the best thing to build: a Type set). The speculators really are not back yet as they got badly whupped two years ago. So there is still plenty of time and even some opportunity. We actually do see a few NEW collectors coming around-something we take as a very bullish sign.

OCTOBER

There are NO major shows in October save for Coinfest. Heritage is having major auction there. There several minor shows. It should set the stage for a potentially VERY healthy Baltimore (assuming this Philadelphia show did not cannibalize it and gold does not crash and spook everyone).

We think gold will probably have a correction in the middle of the month. It just can’t keep going up. Even if it does correct, the telemarketers will still have orders to fill. So on the numismatic side, the effects might not show until the very end of the year. Or even never if drops just a little.

One more not about coinfest: CAC will NOT be setting up this year.

WHAT IS HOT?

GEM Proof Type, Bust coins, we’re going to step out on a limb: Commems are strong at the “levels”. MS Walkers. Of course GOLD. ALL BETETR GOLD. generics, need to be CAC. Still, there are buyers at the lower levels.

WHAT IS NOT HOT?

DRECK! Merc Dimes. Lincoln Cents.

Related posts:

1. Legend Numismatics Market Report – The Philadelphia Coin Expo
2. Legend Numismatics Baltimore Coin Show Market Report
3. The Baltimore Coin Show – Legend Numismatics Market Report