By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

We figured not many people would miss us not posting NEWPS after CSNS, but we must have had fifty emails asking us what happened. Fortunately our reason for no NEWPS was all good. Soon we will have a major announcement about another big deal Legend Numismatics completed. This one just had to completed immediately after CSNS ended. So hence we had no time to go through our purchases. We’re back in the office and are up to full steam. Activity at our level of the market is as strong as ever!

WE FIGURED OUT WHERE ALL THE COINS ARE!

We’ve been crying for months that the supply of neat, fresh, and accurately graded coins is virtually non existent. Except for auctions, prices are virtually “stuck in mud” due to a fair level of dreck still floating around and the fact most cool coins are in VERY strong hands (which means no trading).

IT MUST BE THE DRINKING WATER

We started to thinking as to what hoards exist or how big some collections are. We scared ourselves when we realized that in the Dallas/Fort Worth area alone there are TWO (yes, just TWO) collections that are highly active and if combined would be worth in excess of $500,000,000.00! Anyone who knows either collection would not dispute that number. As caretaker of one of the collections, we know it has at least 15 coins valued in excess of $1 million dollars! We wouldn’t even know where to begin counting with the collection on the other side of town (they probably have 25+ coin over $1 million each)!

Its not just the glamour or money that attracts us to these huge collections. If you think about it, for anyone to put that kind of money into a coin collection today, not only are they rich, but they have extreme confidence in the market. Rich people do not throw their money away. BOTH collections contain some of the VERY BEST coins ever minted. Both owners will pay extreme premiums to obtain the classic rarities that fit. We highly doubt any significant pieces from these collections will be on the market again in our lifetime. However if either of these monster collections are ever sold in years to come, the returns would be staggering-even on their short term holdings!

Thinking about other ares in the country, we could not find a pocket anywhere near the size of those two collections. NYC has a few collections we know worth over $25,000,000.00 each (we know of at least $100 million total in NYC), the Midwest we know of one collection worth at least $50,000,000.00, and surprisingly, we do not know of any mega collections worth more than $10,000,000.00 on the West Coast. However, all across the US we know of dozens plus collections worth $1 million to $10 million. That is just amazing that without much effort we can figure where ONE BILLION DOLLARS worth of rare coins are. (more…)

We were VERY surprised at how the show ended up for us. But then our expectations were small. It took a tremendous effort to make things happen.

Arriving on Tuesday, we immediately did business within 5 minutes of arriving at the hotel. Since everyone was scattered around different hotels, activity was limited until set up began. At CSNS they have a PNG Day. So as usual us lesser folk had wait outside while the mighty members of PNG set up. Once allowed in, true to form for PNG days, activity was non existent. Many dealers got spooked fearing the entire show could be lame. We feel very strongly these PNG days add nothing to a show and actually hurt momentum.

Thursday was dealer set up day. Since there had been a full PNG Day and the night before PNG set up, the majority of dealers were ruffled by the fact the CSNS people did not allow any public in until Friday. If you wanted in Thursday, you had to pay $75.00. We heard one angry collector say he’d much rather go tip cows.

However, a funny thing happened during regular dealer set up: activity started to happen. We can’t say there was a rush, but we saw signs of coins selling. By the end of the day, we had done some significant sales and we spoke to others who had seen some life too. When the public was allowed in Friday-there was activity! We were totally surprised at how many collectors did show up Friday. In the morning there was a light buzz. Buying was not aggressive, but you could sell a coin here and there.

The biggest problem Legend had: BUYING. Yes, this is broken record: THERE ARE NO NICE, FRESH, COINS TO BUY! On Friday evening as the show closed, we tallied up our buying on the floor: $93,000.00-of which ONE coin was $50,000.00. Each day dealers would ask each other: did you buy anything? We know this lack of nice coins made many collectors leave the show earlier than they had anticipated.

One huge positive note: dreck was finally being bought! Since the floor was so dry, dealers realized they needed to make a living. So the intelligent soles who knew better lowered yet again the prices of their dreck and made the pieces more attractive. Two of our stealth sales team each sold an expensive coin (over $50,000.00) that we have had in our inventory for a year! We knew this would happen eventually. (more…)

Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics Market Report

THERE ARE NO COOL HIGH QUALITY COINS AROUND

We are talking about true rarities and high grade drop dead monster coins (although we have not seen things like MONSTER MS68 Morgans). When is the last time you have seen any of these offered for sale more than once in the past few years?

• GEM Early Half Cents
• 2C GEM MS65+ FULL RED
• 3CS 1867-1869 MS 64+
• 3CN MS67 better dates
• 5C MS67 Liberty Nickels
• 25C ALL MS64+ EARLY BUST
• 25C GEM Lib Seated MS65+
• 50C ALL EARLY BUST MS63+
• 50C BUST HALVES MS66+
• 50C 19D+21S MS65+
• SEATED DOLLARS MS65+
• TRADE DOLLARS MS66+
• PR GOLD $10+20’s 65+
• $3 BETTER pieces MS65+
• $5 1808-1834 MS65+
• $10 PRE 1890 MS65+

These are just RANDOM areas we could think of. Its nearly impossible to go to a major show today and see anything cool for sale. Even the major auctions are now bone dry of neat coins. Retreads at lower prices have been keeping the demand fairly satisfied but now we are clearly at the breaking point.

The lack of coins has nothing to do with the grading services. GREAT COINS ARE IN STRONG HANDS. Quietly, demand has been growing and taking coins off the market. For years a Japanese group were buying up PR Gold and GEM CC DMPL’s. The worlds largest telemarketer has been buying up all the Early Bust Gold it can find its customers. A major Wall Street Fund had been quietly trolling around and buying all the substantial coins it could. A new breed of “super” collector has emerged and they are assembling collections valued in the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS each (which is one of the reasons why there are now OVER 350 coins worth $1 million or more). Our point is, there have been HUGE vacuums of coins all around for the past few years and no one really noticed. Obviously, it did not take much to dry up supply.

Having no coins around is both good and bad. Its bad because the market can actually slow due to lack of trading. We know that if we can not find the coins on our massive Want Lists, then we do not make sales. Sure, we have an inventory, but like everyone elses, it is speculative in nature. Plus at shows it becomes a big psychological negative to go from table to table looking at dreck (again, that’s LOW END, UGLY, PROBLEM coins) or the same stuff priced too high. The good part, in order to dig up the special goodies, PRICES MUST GO UP. Dealers will either bid more or you’ll see coins go crazy in auctions. (more…)