Gold’s holding pattern is a gift to bargain hunters

Gold prices stood near the $1,350 range today on news that China’s central bank acted to slow inflation but fell short of raising interest rates outright. Gold’s holding pattern is a gift to bargain hunters because gold “should continue to remain well supported too, both by the growing debt crisis in the euro-zone peripherals, which could spill over to other countries at any time, and the expansion of liquidity on the back of renewed quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy,” Commerzbank analysts said. Richcomm Global Services’ Pradeep Unni agreed, saying a weak dollar and a firmer euro “will continue to provide a bullish bias to the metal.”

The trend is “back up again”

Gold prices surged back Thursday as the euro rose against the dollar on optimism of a bailout for Ireland. “Having held $1,330, and with the dollar a bit weaker … we are just following the trend back up again,” the Bank of Nova Scotia’s Simon Weeks said. VTB Capital’s Andrey Kryuchenkov noted: “Should fear in the eurozone escalate, gold would draw fresh support from risk-averse buyers similar to what happened earlier this summer when investors scrambled for the safe-haven asset on fears of sovereign default.” Investors also are watching China for potential news of an interest-rate rise, which would only create a buying opportunity for bargain hunters.

Billionaire George Soros tips his hat to gold

With quantitative easing going full-steam ahead and U.S. interest rates low for the foreseeable future, billionaire investor George Soros said the precious metal still has plenty of kick to it. “The conditions for gold are pretty perfect,” he said Monday. Soros also said the present world order is on the brink of breaking down. “There is now a rapid decline of the United States and a rapid rise of China,” he said. “It is happening very quickly. … If they persist in their present course, it will lead to conflict,” he said, adding that China’s neighbors are already getting nervous about its rising global influence. Read more

Inflation surfaces at Walmart, not in feds’ data

Offering up its statistics Wednesday, the Labor Department said the core consumer price index, an inflation indicator that excludes food and energy prices, was unchanged in October. However, a new pricing survey of 86 products sold there – mostly everyday items like food and detergent – showed a “meaningful” 0.6 percent price increase in just the past two months, according to MKM Partners. At that rate, prices would be close to 4 percent higher a year from now, double the Federal Reserve’s mandate. “I suspect that when [Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke] thinks about reflation, he has a difficult time seeing any other asset besides real estate,” said Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services. “Somehow the Fed thinks that if it’s not ‘wage-driven’ inflation then it is somehow unimportant. It’s not unimportant to people who see everything they own (homes) going down in value and everything they need (food and energy) going up in price.” Read more

The Fed sticks to its quantitative-easing guns

Ben Bernanke had to defend the Fed’s actions on Capitol Hill, where he briefed skeptical lawmakers on the QE plan’s merits on Wednesday, and some of his colleagues said the bank is likely to follow through on its entire $600 billion bond-buying program, citing weak economic data. “It looks like we’ll be purchasing at this pace through the end of the second quarter to add up to $600 billion,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said.

The Fed’s QE plan came under fire this week from a group of prominent Republican-leaning economists and other experts. “The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed’s objective of promoting employment,” they said in an open letter published in The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. Top Republican lawmakers also sent Bernanke a letter warning that QE “introduces significant uncertainty regarding the future strength of the dollar and could result both in hard-to-control, long-term inflation and potentially generate artificial asset bubbles that could cause further economic disruptions.” Read more

Chinese march toward gold continues

“China is considering raising its gold reserves, a move which would push up gold prices in the future, a person providing consulting services to the Chinese government said” in a Chinese daily-newspaper article. “The source told the 21st Century Business Herald [that] China may gradually increase gold holdings as it is not possible for the country to buy large amounts of the metal within a short time.” Two Chinese precious-metals experts also weighed in on gold’s prospects for the article: “Chen Beilei, director of metals and mining at BOC International Holdings, said China may increase its gold reserves to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. … Demand for gold may continue to rise due to inflationary risks brought by Washington’s recently announced quantitative easing program, high public debts and low economic growth in Europe, Chen said. … Feng Rui, president of Silvercorp Metals, said the decline [in gold prices] is an adjustment in the upward trend … and the metal may rise by as much as 20 percent in the future. Feng predicted the price of gold would peak at $1,600 per ounce in 2011.” Read more

“Bullish” Barclays Capital sees $1,485 gold this year

Gold could hit a record $1,485 by year’s end, Barclays Capital analysts say. “Strategically, we are bullish,” the bank said. “Medium-term trend followers are unlikely to have been panicked out of their positions given that important support between $1,314 and $1,331 is still holding. A bearish divergence signal on weekly charts, though, warns of downside risk throughout the month, and we still fear an important clearout below $1,314 to $1,250 before gold recovers. We would be bargain-hunting as the price approaches $1,250.” Read more

French banking giant raises its precious-metals forecasts

BNP Paribas said Wednesday it has raised its 2011 forecasts for gold and silver (as well as palladium and platinum).

Gold: The bank increased its gold forecast for the first quarter of next year to an average $1,415 from its previous estimate of $1,280, with the price expected to rise to an average $1,565 by the end of next year, compared with a previous $1,310 forecast. “Gold is considered one of the best hedges against either of these risks,” BNP Paribas analysts wrote, referring to dollar weakness and rising inflation fueled by QE. “Add to inflation expectations a low nominal interest rate environment, and the decline in expectations for real returns makes alternative asset classes, such as commodities, appealing for investors.”

Silver: The bank expects silver to average $25.30 in the first three months of next year, up from its previous forecast of $19.75, rising to an average $27.45 by year’s end. The spot silver price has risen by more than 50 percent this year to 30-year highs well above $25. Read more

Any dip is a buying opportunity, experts concur

The trend is positive: “We may see some more consolidation in gold,” said INO.com chief and Market Club co-founder Adam Hewison in a Monday video chart analysis of gold. “Now please don’t misunderstand what I’m saying. We are not bearish on gold longer-term. The trend in fact is still very positive. … The longer-term trend in gold … is very clearly up, and it’s going to probably have some pullbacks, which is possible, and then I think we’re going to see the market go to new highs. I don’t think we’ve seen the highs yet in gold.” Watch video

Accumulate on weakness: “We don’t think that the U.S. dollar fundamentally should deliver any form of sustained strength, so we wouldn’t expect to see this serve as a game changer for the commodities,” Fat Prophets analyst Colin Whitehead told CNBC Monday. “The underlying fundamentals for gold – and that is strong and continued investment demand – remain in place over the longer term. So we don’t think that we’re in bubble territory yet. We’re really just in the foothills of the gold bubble. … Certainly as we look at gold, it’s not yet clear as to whether the correction has petered out. We’re certainly going to have some consolidation ahead of what we think is a further upface. So we’ll be looking to accumulate on weakness there.” Watch video

A healthy correction: “This [dip] is just healthy,” CIBC World Markets Vice Chairman Warren Gilman told CNBC Tuesday. “Metal prices probably got a little bit ahead of themselves during the September and October period. Prices got to pretty lofty levels, and I think this is a healthy correction. … I think gold is going to prove to be most resilient. People have been waiting for an opportunity for an entry point, and I think this is probably that opportunity.” Agreeing with CNBC anchor Bernard Lo that paper currencies are vulnerable, Gilman adds: “That’s one of many reasons, and obviously we have inflation on the horizon, and there are plenty of reasons to buy gold, and I think there are a lot more buyers than sellers in this environment. … I think we could get down to $1,250, or we could potentially break $1,300, but I wouldn’t expect it to go much further than that.” Asked what sort of gold to invest in, Gilman says: “I think I would probably shy away from the equities because the equities have had a good run in the last little while. I would go for physical. … Buy coins.” Lo interjects: “Krugerrands, Maple Leafs, and Pandas?” “Indeed,” Gilman answers. Watch video
Stay the course: In a Monday show, CNBC “Fast Money” analysts applauded billionaire hedge-fund magnate John Paulson’s decision to maintain his massive gold position. “You look at his holding, gold. He kept it; he left it alone,” Joe Terranova said. “I don’t know why you would be selling gold right now. You should hold onto it. He’s doing the right thing. There’s nothing in the price action that tells you to sell.” Analyst Carter Worth agreed: “The reason to sell something, right, is weakness that suggests further weakness, or hyper-strength that suggests it’s over. Gold has been deliberate and orderly and measured – a nice bounce over the last three months. … Stay the course.” Watch video

ETFs lose luster in the shadow of physical gold

Doubts continue to be raised about the reliability of certain exchange-traded funds, and Blanchard and Company, Inc. agrees the issue is a troublesome one.
Read the fine print: In a Nov. 10 broadcast, CNBC star Rick Santelli called into question the actual physical precious-metals backing behind the large exchange-traded funds like SLV and GLD. “If you’re looking for something to worry about, think about all the coverage we in house have been giving to ETFs. I like futures contracts because I know there’s silver there, and if I want it, I’ll get it. But ETFs I still have questions about. … It’s clear that you can’t get the physical gold if you want it – they can give you money (instead). Read the fine print – that’s all I’m saying. And I want to put somebody on who’s actually seen their inventory. You think we can find somebody who will actually go on and say, ‘I’ve seen it’? I don’t think so.” Watch video

Hosted by “hostile entities”: Seeking Alpha contributor Mark Anthony has articulated similar fears in a recent article: “I always encourage people to directly own physical precious metals. I do not trust the physical gold ETF, GLD, and the physical silver ETF, SLV. Like some other folks I expressed skepticism whether these funds actually hold the physical precious metals as they claimed. These ETF funds were hosted by entities known to be hostile to precious metal investors and known to have large short positions in silver, so why should people trust them?” Read more

Similar concerns surfaced in a Financial News article Monday titled “Bearish trustees dig deep for gold and diamonds”:

Iain Tait, partner at UK wealth adviser London & Capital, received requests from separate trustees in Jersey and Guernsey for physical diamonds and gold bars last week. He said: “There is the feeling that ETFs are the home of the speculator, while bars and real diamonds are the domain of wealthy families trying to protect themselves.”

Ned Naylor-Leyland, partner at Cheviot Asset Management, said a lack of trust in banks and the spectre of counterparty risk was a problem. “I hear Swiss banks are turning out their vaults for clients wanting to take home their gold. Trust is wearing thin.”

Some investors are put off by the idea that gold ETFs can contain other financial products, such as swaps or derivatives, even if just a small percentage of their weighting.

Angus Murray, chief executive of London-based Castlestone Management, said: “Physical gold is simply metal without any other financial product or structure. My clients want to own an unleveraged real asset.” He added: “If the ETF doesn’t have the ability to list additional shares there can be a pricing issue. Why complicate it?” Read more

Don’t lose sight of the big picture

Analyzing gold’s correction this week in a Seeking Alpha post, Gold in Mind blogger Marek Kuchta concludes:

The only thing that somewhat makes sense is the big picture and the general direction. The gold price has so far gained 20 percent in 2010, even after the current drop. All primary, long-term reasons for gold’s continuous rise such as exorbitant government debt and unfunded liabilities, quantitative easing, high volatility and uncertainty in all markets, fear of commodity inflation (to be followed by imported domestic inflation), and many more, remain in place. There is no obvious reason for a lasting trend reversal in the gold price. Unfortunately, very obvious are the reasons for a further decline of the value of the dollar and possibly also the pound and the euro.

So, strategic investors and savers, don’t lose your nerves. Wherever we are headed, it will be a bumpy ride that may end up in a complete off-road trip. Don’t forget where the north is, think about what you’ll need should we arrive in the wilderness. Nothing is safe there. Diversify, buy gradually, avoid paper promises. Keep your economic seat belt buckled, keep your eyes open, keep gold in mind.

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Critics Believe Second Round of Quantitative Easing By the Fed Will Further Devalue the Dollar and Create Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been quoted as saying he would fly over the United States and drop dollars from a helicopter should it be necessary.

Sans helicopter, for the time being at any rate, the Federal Reserve has announced that it plans to breathe new life into the economy with additional quantitative easing, a series of Treasury purchases starting with $600,000,000 that may ultimately total $1 trillion or more according to some sources. With the U.S. economy expanding at just 2 percent annually in the third quarter of this year and the jobless rate apparently stalled at about 9.6 percent, the Fed was pressured to do something to stimulate the economy.

Bernanke explained to students at Jacksonville University that a second round of easing will enable the Fed to accomplish its two Congressional mandates, ensuring full employment and stable prices while preventing deflation and generating some “good” inflation.

Critics say the dollar will weaken and create inflation

Critics believe that the dollar will weaken as these purchases (accomplished by printing money) increase the Fed’s balance sheet. Inflation is fueled by a weaker dollar as the real price of goods and services becomes more expensive. Using past research and her own models, Goldman Sachs strategist Robin Brooks suggests the dollar will need to drop a great deal more than the Federal Reserve thinks in order to meet the central bank’s inflation target.

“Substantial additional monetary stimulus is needed for the Fed to meet its dual mandate on inflation and employment,” wrote Brooks after the Fed’s announcement. She has raised her estimate for the total size of this second round of quantitative easing from $1 trillion to $2 trillion. “If indeed the Fed sees the dollar as one of its key policy levers for preventing inflation from staying below its mandate for a prolonged period, the dollar needs to fall a lot further from here,” says Brooks.

The big question is when Bernanke discovers that the plan isn’t working, how much farther could the dollar fall? This controversial plan of additional quantitative easing takes the Fed into essentially uncharted waters and puts the dollar at risk of crashing. Frankly, these additional bond purchases could be more destructive than critics even think if inflation is ignited when the economy finally comes around.

A recipe for currency wars

“Our first objective, the first goal that we have, is to meet our mandate to get price stability and maximum employment in the United States,” Bernanke said in response to questions from college students in Jacksonville, Florida. “A strong U.S. economy, a recovering economy, is critical not just for Americans but it’s also critical for the global recovery.”

Overseas officials see it differently, however. Many believe the Fed’s plan may not only affect their economies negatively, but fail to accomplish the objective in the United States as well.

* “We are all under attack by the relaxed monetary policy of the United States,” Colombian Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry told investors.

* Among other comments, China’s central bank chief said the Federal Reserve’s plan reinforced the need to reform the global financial system.

* German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted as saying: “I don’t think the Americans will solve their problems with this and I think they are creating extra problems for the world.”

* Brazil’s finance minister stated that the move would devalue the dollar, negatively affect Brazil and other exporters and be ineffective without other changes. In a reference to Bernanke’s aeronautical moniker, he also stated: “It’s no use throwing dollars out of a helicopter.”

* The Philippine central bank stated it would “remain vigilant” and a bank deputy governor warned the Fed’s move might exacerbate instability in emerging markets.

Four Reasons Why This “Gold” Bull Market Is Nowhere Near the Top

Reason #1. It is obvious that the trend for the dollar is down and “Helicopter” Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are dead set on debasement. Bernanke wants a weaker dollar pure and simple. The current climate of low inflation in the United States has generated comparisons to Japan’s “lost decade” where deflation prevailed. Unlike Japan, however, the United States finances its deficits externally. Our destiny will be different and the dollar may crash in that process.

Reason #2. It is obvious that the Fed sees deflation as the death knell to the debt bubble and is willing to debase the dollar to prevent any chance of deflation. This, in my view, is a very wrong policy. We must brace ourselves for a much weaker dollar.

Reason #3. Add the massive new debt, involvement in conflicts around the globe, the possibility of terrorist threats, the potential debacle when the United States cannot meet its obligations, rising mortgage failures, out of control entitlements, outsourcing and the burgeoning economic power of Asia, a stagnating economy and ever increasing unemployment to the threat of inflation and the case for gold couldn’t be stronger. When the direction of the dollar is down, the direction of gold in its various forms, including coins, is up!

Reason #4. This bull market is nowhere near the top and the multi-year gold bull market is firmly intact. Commodity price cycles tend to last multiple decades and the current bull cycle only began in 2001. Gold’s recent run has been slow and steady due to the greater affluence in the developing countries where people have traditionally turned to gold as a store of wealth. All savvy investors should take note.

Make sure your portfolio is appropriately diversified

Historically, gold has performed well in times of political and financial turmoil. Gold hit an all-time high (adjusted for inflation) in 1980 during the Iran hostage crisis and when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. The geopolitical climate today is also volatile. Consider the ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the pursuit of nuclear arms by Iran and North Korea and the fact that the major economies of the world have assumed extensive amounts of debt. The economic instability of Greece and other nations hasn’t gone away. The United States is still battling ever-increasing unemployment and job losses even after it has spent hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus money. All of these factors make a strong bullish case for gold. In fact, a recent Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts proved to be very bullish for 2011.

If you do nothing else, make sure your portfolio is appropriately diversified….and Monaco Rare Coins is here to provide you with any assistance you may need. Monaco is second to no company in the industry for availability and prices. Even in the rare event that you may find a better price elsewhere…we will meet any legitimate offer on any like coin. We look forward to assisting you in beginning your diversification into gold coins or the continued diversification of your portfolio.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been investigating allegations of price manipulation in the silver market since 2008.

A Bloomberg report today stated “The investor, Peter Laskaris, alleges that starting in March 2008, the banks colluded to suppress silver futures so that call options, or the right to buy, would decline, and put options for the right to sell would increase, according to the complaint filed today in federal court in Manhattan. The collusion was also intended to maintain prices at levels at which some options would expire as worthless, Laskaris claims.

The banks placed so-called spoof trading orders, or the “submission of a large order ” according to the complaint.”

It is alledged the banks used their large positions to effect the market by “flooding” it with a disproportionate number of orders which are not executed but influences prices, and is then withdrawn before it reasonably can be executed. They “reaped hundreds of millions of dollars, if not billions of dollars in profits from their unlawful and manipulative suppression of the prices”.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission began probing allegations of price manipulation in the silver futures market in September 2008.

Commissioner on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Bart Chilton. Photographer: Brendan Hoffman/Bloomberg

At a hearing in Washington yesterday, CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton said there have been “fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control” silver prices and that violators should be prosecuted. [His full statement can be read at http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/CommissionerBartChilton/chiltonstatement102610.html.]

A seperate suit was also filed today “on behalf of investor Brian Beatty, and naming the same banks as defendants, claims a whistleblower contacted the CFTC last year and reported the banks’ conspiracy to suppress prices of silver futures to profit from “enormous” short positions in silver futures.”

The respective plaintiffs, Brian Beatty and Peter Laskaris, each said they traded COMEX silver futures and options and contracts, and lost money because of the alleged manipulation.

The cases are Beatty v. JPMorgan Chase & Co et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 10-08146, and Laskaris v. JPMorgan Chase & Co et al in the same court, No. 10-08157.

The lawsuits were filed one day after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed regulations to give it greater power to thwart traders who try to manipulate prices.

“Going back to the early 1980s, silver has been an extremely volatile market,” said Bill O’Neill, managing partner at Logic Advisors, an Upper Saddle River, New Jersey investment firm specializing in commodities. “I often describe it as a speculative playground. You have to be a big boy to play.”

According to a Reuters article “Only once in its 36-year history has the CFTC successfully concluded a manipulation prosecution, in a 1998 proceeding concerning prices for electricity futures.”

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“The Royal Canadian Mint values the role its collector coins play in showcasing Canada’s vast heritage through precious and unforgettable works of art and craftsmanship,” said Ian E. Bennett, President and CEO of the Royal Canadian Mint.

“Collectors from Canada and around the world will find that the Mint’s newest collector coins honour the tradition of celebrating Canada’s defining features through keepsakes of uncompromising quality”.

The following are descriptions of the products now available to collectors and gift givers worldwide.

2010 $10 1/5-OZ PURE GOLD AND 2010 $5 1-OZ PURE SILVER PIEDFORT COINS – MAPLE LEAF

The Royal Canadian Mint is proud to celebrate its expertise and artistry in the field of precious metal refining and manufacturing with a pair of pure gold and silver “Piedfort” coins whose exceptional thickness distinguishes them from ordinary coins and makes them spectacular gifts or collectibles for those with an eye for the exclusive.

Both the $10 1/5 oz. 99.999% pure gold coin -the Mint’s first gold Piedfort, and the 1 oz. 99.99% pure silver coin -only the second of these coins the Mint has produced in silver, feature the iconic maple leaf, long symbolic of the Mint’s leadership of the world bullion industry. Only 3,000 1/5 oz. coins of 99.999% pure gold and 9,000 silver one-ounce coins of 99.99% purity are being made available in this exciting release.

The entire mintage of 99.999% pure gold coins Piedfort coin is offered as part of a set including the 99.99% pure silver Piedfort coin, retailing at $679.95 CAD. Another 6,000 individual silver Piedfort coins are being offered at $79.95 CAD each.

2010 $300 PLATINUM COIN — GROUND SLOTH

The fourth issue in the Mint’s exclusive Prehistoric Animals Collection of 9995 fine platinum coins features the gigantic Jefferson’s Ground Sloth, so called after the third President of the United States of America donated, in 1797, the first fossil specimens found in North America to Philadelphia’s American Philosophical Society. The tradition of showcasing the fascinating animals which roamed ancient Canada continues on this precious Mint coin containing a full ounce of pure platinum. Like the rare bones of the creature it immortalizes, this platinum coin has been made in very low quantities, with a worldwide mintage of only 200 examples. Designed by Alberta artist Kerri Burnett, this coin retails for $2,999.95 CAD.

2010 $300 GOLD NEW BRUNSWICK COAT OF ARMS

The Mint has introduced the latest in its series of $300 gold coins series dedicated to Canada’s Official Provincial Coats of Arms. This ornate, oversize coin celebrates the Coat of Arms assigned by Royal Warrant of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II on September 24, 1984; New Brunswick’s bi-centennial. The heraldic symbols added under this Warrant include an Atlantic salmon with St. Edward’s Crown; a grassy mound covered with fiddleheads and purple violets (the province’s floral emblem); and two white tailed deer. The Union Badge represents English, Scottish and Irish settlers while the Royal Arms of France on the right acknowledges French settlement.Only 500 of these proof 14-karat gold coins have been produced, each of which retail for $2,249.95 CAD.

All of the Mint’s products are available directly from the Mint at 1-800-267-1871 in Canada, 1-800-268-6468 in the US, or on the Internet at www.mint.ca. The coins are also available at the Royal Canadian Mint’s boutiques in Ottawa and Winnipeg as well as through our global network of dealers and distributors.

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The online gold and silver seller industry is one of the most rapidly growing in the world today. NIA is dedicated to ensuring that Americans get the most real money for their fiat money when making the most important investment decision of their lives. NIA believes it’s important for Americans to receive their precious metals in a timely manner, as hyperinflation in the U.S. can literally break out overnight due to an unforeseen event taking place in one of our creditor nations.

NIA decided to award Gainesville Coins with our “NIA 2010 Best Bullion Award“.

Gainesville Coins is the highest rated company in our review with prices for precious metals that are the lowest out of all the companies in our review. Gainesville Coins had already earned a perfect 5 stars in all categories in our original review, but they have somehow managed to improve their site by adding precious metal spot prices as well as new “Deals of the Week”, “Featured”, “New Arrivals”, and “Top Sellers” features. NIA members who make a purchase on Gainesville Coins can now receive an automatic $5 discount on their order by applying the following coupon code in their shopping cart: ‘NIAUS’ (NIA does NOT earn any kind of a referral fee).

NIA has added three new companies to its review: Austin Rare Coins, Monarch Precious Metals, and Northwest Territorial Mint. NIA has also updated the reviews of previously reviewed companies. NIA’s next update to its review will be released later this summer. NIA plans to soon implement a new feature that will allow its members to submit new companies for NIA to review. NIA members will also be able to submit complaints about companies that should be avoided.

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