A Weekly Column by Greg Reynolds

I. FUN Auctions

During the Jan. 2011 FUN Platinum Night auction in Tampa, Heritage will offer Jim O’Neal’s set of Indian Head Half Eagles ($5 gold coins). This set is the “All-Time Finest” in the PCGS Registry and contains many individual coins that are at or near the top of the condition rankings for their respective dates. Many other rare U.S. coins, including some Great Rarities, will be auctioned during the Platinum Night event and I will cover those soon.

Since 2005, the Heritage FUN Convention auction has been the leading auction of the year for U.S. coins. Indeed, four of the last six January FUN auctions have been phenomenal.

A few days before the start of the FUN Convention at the Tampa Convention Center, B&M will conduct a pre-FUN auction at a nearby hotel. The Malibu collection will be included. Traditionally, pre-FUN auctions have featured especially choice and rare coins as well.

While the winter Florida United Numismatists (FUN) Convention is typically in Orlando, it was in Fort Lauderdale in 2005 and will be in Tampa in January 2011. The Fort Lauderdale area is a more sensible location, as Southern Florida is densely populated. Fort Lauderdale is close to especially affluent areas in Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties. Plus, there are many snowbirds in Southern Florida, people who otherwise live in the Northeastern States.

To attain a better understanding of FUN auctions, or at least to get a flavor for them, please see my articles relating to 2009 and 2010 events: The Jan. 2010 Platinum Night, $3,737,500 for a nickel, the O’Neal Collection of Indian Head Eagles, Queller Collection of Patterns, and Jay Brahin’s $20 gold coins.

When the Jim O’Neal collection of Indian Head (or Saint Gaudens) Eagles ($10 coins) was the opening feature of the Jan. 8, 2009 Platinum Night event, the room was packed. Afterwards, a few experts in attendance indicated to me that prices were higher than expected. Prices were much higher than I expected, as I was not overwhelmed by O’Neal’s Eagles. My preliminary impression is that I will be much more enthusiastic about O’Neal’s Indian Head Half Eagles ($5 pieces), which will be sold during the Jan. 6, 2011 Platinum Night event.

II. O’Neal’s Half Eagles

It now seems that Jim O’Neal’s set of business strike Indian Head Half Eagles is the most famous collection that will be auctioned at the Jan. 2011 FUN Convention. For years, this has been the “finest” such set in both the PCGS and NGC registries. Although the PCGS ranks it ahead of the Dr. Thaine Price and Dr. Duckor sets of Indian Head Half Eagles, my belief is that the Duckor collection was finer. I have yet, however, to see most of the coins in the O’Neal set. The Duckor set of Indian Half Eagles was auctioned by the firm of David Akers as part of the Auction ‘90 event, in the Chicago area.

Dr. Thaine Price’s collection was also auctioned by Akers’ firm. All of the Price collection was sold on the evening of May 19, 1998, and it was overshadowed by the epic Pittman II event that was held the same week at the same location. In most other situations, the offering of the Thaine Price collection would have been considered an amazing event of epic proportions. Dr. Duckor admits that he takes his Thaine Price catalogue with him on vacations to Hawaii, “probably fifteen times” so far. “Akers did a great job.”

The sets of Thaine Price and Steven Duckor were assembled during an era when grading standards were tougher than standards were in the late 1990s and in the early part of the 2000s. Even so, there is no doubt that this O’Neal set contains some of the greatest and most important Indian Head Half Eagles.

Upon my request, Dr. Duckor agreed to rank the all-time finest sets of business strike Indian Head Half Eagles. “I [Duckor] rate the best O’Neal, 2nd mine, 3rd Price, 4th Simpson and 5th Kutasi.” John Kutasi’s set was featured in a Jan. 2007 Platinum Night event.

Dr. Duckor counted the Eliasberg 1909-O heavily, along with O’Neal’s 1911-D and 1912-S, in his determination that O’Neal’s set is better than his ever was. “To me,” Duckor says, “the second toughest coin of the set is the 1911-D in PCGS 65 or better!”

Duckor points out, interestingly, that “quite a few of O’Neal’s coins came from [Duckor's] set and Dr. Price’s set.” A few are pedigreed to Dr. Price in the online catalogue, but which ones were in Duckor’s set?

All of O’Neal’s Indian Head Half Eagles are PCGS certified and, according to the PCGS Registry, the set has a ‘weighted grade point average’ of “65.72.” This is a phenomenal GPA for Indian Head Half Eagles, which are excellent examples of condition rarities.

The series of Indian Head Half Eagles began in 1908 and seemed to end in 1916, though there was one more issue, in 1929. A complete set of business strikes consists of twenty-four coins, including those minted at Philadelphia, Denver, New Orleans and San Francisco. Except for the 1908 Philadelphia issue, every date is extremely rare in MS-65 and higher grades.

The PCGS has not graded a 1915-S Half Eagle in MS-65 or a higher grade. The NGC has graded one 1915-S Half Eagle as “MS-65.” The Duckor 1915-S may be the finest known. The O’Neal 1915-S is PCGS graded MS-64 and has a sticker of approval from the CAC.

Most dates in the series are very easy to find in grades of 62 or lower, and a few dates are plentiful in MS-63 grade. The 1909-O and the 1929 are the key dates in the series, and these have considerable value, even in circulated grades. The 1929 is the most expensive Indian Half Eagle in circulated grades and the 1909-O is the most expensive in ‘mint state’ (uncirculated) grades. The 1911-D is relatively scarce in all grades and is rare in grades of 63 and higher.

For the 1913-S, only one has been graded “MS-66” by the PCGS and none have been graded higher. In 1998, Akers regarded the Dr. Steven Duckor coin as the finest known and the Price-O’Neal 1913-S as the “second finest”! The PCGS price guide values the Price-O’Neal 1913-S at $200,000, which seems low to me. This same coin sold for $110,000 at the Thaine Price sale. If it is the same 1913-S that B&M auctioned in Jan. 1999, it then brought $156,500, when prices in coin markets in general were nowhere near current levels.

The 1913-S Half Eagle that B&M auctioned in Jan. 1999 is (or was) PCGS graded MS-66, as the Price-O’Neal 1913-S is now. The PCGS registry, however, indicates that the Duckor 1913-S is (or was) PCGS graded MS-66, or that it would be if submitted? There is just one 1913-S Half Eagle that is currently PCGS graded MS-66. Dr. Duckor reports that his former “1913-S is in an NGC 66 holder now, and was in a PCGS 65 holder in 1989.” In August 1990, Jay Parrino bought the Duckor 1913-S for $99,000. It was then not encapsulated.

The 1911-D is another of the powerful condition rarities in the series. O’Neal’s 1911-D is the highest graded by the PCGS, “65+,” and it has a sticker of approval from the CAC, which indicates that CAC experts determined it to grade in the middle OR high end of the 65 grade range. The plus grade reveals that this coin was graded by the PCGS in 2010. Unfortunately, it is NOT, though, in a PCGS ‘Secure’ holder. It really should be mandatory that, when a coin of this importance is submitted to the PCGS, the submission be under the SecurePlus program. (Please read my recent two part series on the SecurePlus program, Part 1: Explanation and Part 2: Reform.)

While the Eliasberg-Price-O’Neal 1909-O is Todd Imhof’s “favorite” in O’Neal’s set, Todd asserts that “Jim’s 1911-D, 1913-S and 1912-S are incredible coins and truly rare issues as well.” Imhof is a recognized expert in early 20th century U.S. gold coins. Todd “can’t imagine finer examples of any of these [four] dates in existence.”

This same 1911-D Half Eagle realized $166,750 in the official auction of the Summer 2004 ANA Convention. It should realize substantially more in Jan. 2011.

III. Clapp-Eliasberg 1909-O $5 Gold Piece

It is widely believed that the most valuable Indian Head Half Eagle, of any date or variety, is the Clapp-Eliasberg 1909-O. This is the only 1909-O that is PCGS graded MS-66 and none are graded higher.

According to Imhof, the Eliasberg-Price-O’Neal “1909-O defines the term ‘classic rarity.’ It is a coin that was identified decades ago as being the finest known example of the issue and has stood out ever since,” Imhof declares. “In terms of its appeal, [Todd] put it right up alongside the famous Duckor 1920-S $10 Indian Eagle.” The Duckor 1920-S Eagle ($10 gold coin) was auctioned for $1,725,000 in 2007.

Louis Eliasberg, Sr. assembled the all-time best collection of U.S. coins. Many of the highest quality coins in the Eliasberg collection were earlier in the Clapp collection, which Eliasberg acquired intact, via Stack’s, in 1942.

The Clapp family collection contained many 19th century and early 20th century coins that were later to grade from 66 to 69 by the PCGS or the NGC. Moreover, Clapp coins are often known for their original surfaces and natural toning. It is credibly believed that John Clapp’s source obtained this 1909-O directly from the New Orleans Mint in the Spring of 1909. The Clapps were connoisseurs.

The Clapp-Eliasberg 1909-O Half Eagle was auctioned by the firm of Bowers & Ruddy, along with the rest of Eliasberg’s U.S. gold coins, in Oct. 1982, in New York. David Hall reports that he and Gordon Wrubel, both PCGS founders, jointly purchased this coin for $30,800 and sold it soon afterwards. According to David Akers in 1998, this 1909-O “was subsequently sold in Auction ‘83 to a famous Texas collector and then was resold in Auction ‘89 to Dr. [Thaine] Price.”

I am under the impression that it realized $71,500 in Auction ‘89. For more than ten years, a group of four auction firms joined together each summer to conduct a blockbuster event that was replete with rarities. These events were known as the ‘apostrophe auctions.’

At the auction of the Thaine Price collection, bidding for the Clapp-Eliasberg 1909-O started at under $70,000 and rose rapidly. Several bidders participated. Indeed, the bidding required at least a couple of minutes, which was unusual even in that era. Jay Parrino was the eventual buyer, for a record price of $373,000.

Todd Imhof, now Executive Vice President of Heritage, states that he “was the single largest buyer of $10’s [Eagles] and $20’s [Double Eagles] out of Akers’ Thaine Price auction but I recall wishing I had bid more aggressively on the $5 Indians, especially the 1909-O. I [Todd] just wasn’t working closely with any collectors in this series at the time.”

It seems that experts have long regarded the Eliasberg-Price-O’Neal 1909-O as being of much greater importance than the Duckor-Kruthoffer 1909-O Half Eagle. The Duckor 1909-O realized just $82,250 at Auction ‘90, when market prices for high grade Indian Head Half Eagles were probably higher than prices were in May 1998. The Duckor-Kruthoffer 1909-O was graded by Akers as “65” when it appeared, uncertified, in Auction ‘90. Earlier, in Dec. 1989, it had been graded MS-64 by the PCGS, and, later, it was PCGS graded MS-65.

In August 1990, Jay Parrino was the successful bidder for the Duckor 1909-O, too. Later, the Duckor 1909-O Half Eagle was handled by the firm of David Hall. Therefore, Parrino and Hall have separately owned both the Clapp-Eliasberg-Price-O’Neal and Duckor-Kruthoffer 1909-O Half Eagles. The landmark Robert Kruthoffer collection of early 20th century gold coins was auctioned in 1981.

Personally, I do not find that either the Clapp-Eliasberg or Duckor-Kruthoffer ‘09-O Half Eagles to be particularly ‘high end’ for their respective MS-66 and MS-65 certified grades. I admit, though, that I have never seen a 1909-O Half Eagle that really stunned me. Generally, uncirculated 1909-O Half Eagles tend to be found with uninspiring surfaces. It is very difficult to find even a pleasing MS-64 grade 1909-O.

The PCGS price guide values the Clapp-Eliasberg-Price-O’Neal 1909-O at an even one million dollars, and the Duckor-Kruthoffer coin at $400,000. The James A. Stack 1909-O was auctioned by Stack’s for $99,000 in 1994 and was later graded MS-65 by the NGC. In Nov. 1998, it was auctioned for $178,500 by B&M (New Hampshire).

At this point, I will not itemize more of O’Neal’s Half Eagles, as I have not seen most of them and my sources have not seen them recently. As there are many collectors building sets of Indian Head Half Eagles, and O’Neal’s set has so many wonderful prizes, the selling of this set will probably be very exciting.

©2010 Greg Reynolds

Related posts:

1. Top Registry Set of $10 Gold Coins: The Jim O’Neal Collection of Indian Head Eagles (Part 2)
2. Top Registry Set of $10 Gold Coins Sells on Platinum Night: Jim O’Neal Collection of Indian Head Eagles (Part 1)
3. Coin Rarities & Related Topics: Stack’s auction of the W. L. Carson Collection of Proof Coins

DALLAS, TX — The finest collectible 1909-O Indian half eagle, MS66 PCGS, the Mitchelson-Clapp-Eliasberg-Price example – designated by legendary numismatist David Akers as “The Coin” – will provide some New Year’s fireworks on Thursday, Jan 6, 2011, when it comes up for auction as part of Heritage’s Tampa FUN Platinum Night U.S. Coin Auction. This magnificent coin is the principal highlight of The Jim O’Neal Collection of $5 Indians, the #1 All-Time Finest set of its kind graded by PCGS.

“This is the fourth major collection from Mr. O’Neal that Heritage has had the distinct pleasure to handle, starting with his U.S. currency collection in 2005,” said Greg Rohan, President of Heritage Auctions. “ His incredible $5 Indian Registry Set stands alone in terms of quality, and the advance buzz from collectors is considerable, to say the least. A high grade mint state set of $5 Indians is easily the most daunting challenge facing collectors of 20th Century gold.

The O’Neal specimen of the 1909-O Indian half eagle, the only Indian Head gold coin ever minted in New Orleans and the rarest issue in the set, has an unimpeachable provenance from J.C. Mitchelson to John H. Clapp, Louis E. Eliasberg, Sr., Dr. Thaine B. Price before reaching O’Neal. The Clapp Notebook recording acquisitions of coins in that collection indicates that Mitchelson sold the coin to Clapp in June 1909. That means that Mitchelson almost certainly ordered the coin directly from the Mint and, given that it is well-known that the 1909-O half eagles were coined in February or March 1909, this piece may well have been among the first coins minted.

Going one year earlier, among the most luminous of the O’Neal coins is a 1908-S half eagle MS68, PCGS, the single highest PCGS-graded mint state $5 Indian of any date. While specific information about this coin’s origin dates back only five years, it may date back to a small hoard of high-quality pieces once owned by legendary businessman and collector Virgil Brand.

The finest certified example of a 1911-D half eagle, MS65+ PCGS, CAC, one of several famous gold issues bearing that date and mintmark, continues the top offerings of the collection.

“It’s rare to find a 1911-D half eagle with a smooth surface, period,” said Rohan, “let alone one as gorgeous, glossy and appealing as this particular example. It’s the #1 coin of its kind for good reason and we anticipate spirited competition to take it home in Tampa.”

A stunning 1913-S half eagle, MS66 PCGS, the finest known example certified by PCGS and likely the finest of its kind – certainly, in the absolute sense, one of the great condition rarities of the series – rounds out the top offerings in The O’Neal Collection. The coin’s provenance, which includes a long stay in the famous Dr. Thaine B. Price Collection, indicates that this example has only been offered publicly on two previous occasions, in 1998 and 1999.

Related posts:

1. W. Philip Keller Collection of U.S. Colonials leads Heritage COINFEST Auction
2. 1796 Bust Quarter from the Norweb Collection in Heritage Coin Auction
3. W. Philip Keller Colonoal Coin Collection Leads Heritage COINFEST Auction

So if you are Joe Coin Promoter and you are gearing up for the Civil War Sesquicentennial in 2011, what kind of gold coins can you get enough of to do a promotion? Let’s go denomination by denomination and figure this out.

I. Gold Dollars

Only two mints made gold dollars in 1861: Philadelphia and Dahlonega. The 1861-P is common and cheap; the 1861-D is rare and expensive. The 1861-D is unpromotable; it is too rare to accumulate in quantity and is already too expensive. A clever dealer could probably stealthily buy 40-50 1861-P gold dollars in lower Mint State grades over the course of a year and have enough coins to promote. He could probably find as many 1862-P gold dollars and maybe have as many as 100 coins in total. I would have to wonder, though, if the intended audience for this promotion would get excited about gold dollars as they are small, common and not really “sexy.” As a collector I’d probably avoid stockpiling any Civil War gold dollars to ride the coattails of a promotion.

II. Quarter Eagles

Two mints made quarter eagles in 1861: Philadelphia and San Francisco. The 1861-S is unheralded but scarce and I doubt if you could put together a group of more than three or four over the course of a year. The 1861-P is common in grades up to MS63 and it might be possible to accumulate enough to promote. I like the promotional possibilities of this issue and it might not be a bad idea for a collector to buy a few MS62 to MS63 pieces and see if prices increase in the next few years. None of the other Civil War Philadelphia issues can be found in enough quanity to promote. The San Francisco issues are all rare but it might be possible to put together a rag-tag group of circulated examples.

III. Three Dollar Gold Pieces

You couldn’t promote threes in Uncircirculated as all of the Civil War issues are rare enough and expensive enough to preclude this. But you might actually be able to acculate a few dozen nice circulated pieces. This promotion actually makes sense to me as the three dollar denomination is odd and interesting and it would appeal to non-collectors. It is also out of favor right now so the possibility of buying a fair quantity exists. The 1861-64 dates are all moderately scarce but available in the EF-AU range for less than $4,000 per coin. As a promotion bandwagon jumper, these three dollar gold pieces kind of make sense to me.

IV. Half Eagles

The two southern branch mint half eagles (1861-C and 1861-D) would be fantastic issues to promote but they can not be found in quantity. The San Francisco half eagles of this era are also very rare and while not as glamorous as the 1861-C or 1861-D, issues like the 1862-S and 1864-S half eagle are highly unlikely to be used in a promotion. This leaves the Philadelphia coins. The 1861 is the only one that is common although I wonder if a promoter could find, say, fifty to one hundred examples. I imagine that if you were willing to sell cheap pieces, like in EF40 or EF45, it might just be possible. Not “easy,” but maybe “possible.”

V. Eagles

Civil War era ten dollar gold pieces were made only at the Philadelphia and San Francisco mints. All of the west coast issues are rare in any grade and the possibility of finding more than a few in any grade is unlikely. The Philadelphia issues are even rarer with the exception of the 1861 which can be found in some quantity in circulated grades. But I just don’t think you could come up with enough coins to make for a good promotion. Which is actually kind of shame as a group of 1861 eagles in EF and AU grades would make a great Civil War-themed promotion.

VI. Double Eagles

There isn’t a better denomination to promote these days than the double eagle. The coin are big and with gold at $1,400 or so per ounce, they interest nearly every investor. Unfortunately, there is just a single Civil War double eagle that might be available in a quantity great enough to promote: the 1861 Philadelphia. This is probably the most common non-shipwreck Type One double eagle and it exists in significant quantity in circulated grades. But….there may be a fly in the proverbial ointment. Type One double eagles are currently as popular as any series of American coin and an issue like the 1861-P, which used to be fairly easy to buy in quantity, is now in demand by legitimate collectors. It still might be possible but its not going to be an easy task.

After thinking about Civil War era gold coins to promote for the Cvil War Sesquicentennial in 2011, I’ve pretty much come to the conclusion that unless someone has been working on this project for at least a year already, it probably can’t be done in time. Given the scarcity of these coins and the costs involved, maybe it would make more sense to work on buying 500 circulated 1861 Indian Cents or 750 circulated 1864 and 1865 Two Cent pieces.

Related posts:

1. Wales Civil War gold comes home
2. Perth Mint Unveils the Gold and Silver Bullion Coins to be offered in 2011
3. Overdated United States Gold Coins

With Featured Collections such as The W. Philip Keller Collection of U.S. Colonials and The Eagle Harbor Collection, Part Two lined up, we knew this auction was going to be heavy on early U.S. coinage. The many great proof coins we’re going to offer were more of a surprise, though definitely a welcome one.

Perhaps the most surprising lot of them all is an 1895 Morgan dollar graded PR68 Ultra Cameo by NGC. This example from what is arguably the most famous Morgan dollar issue combines great condition with immense popular demand. It is estimated at $90,000+.

For many years, collectors believed that there were business strike 1895 Morgan dollars out there waiting to be discovered, and in the meantime, they collected proof examples to fill the gap. Today, there is growing acceptance that the business strikes may never be found, but this has hardly dampened enthusiasm for the proofs.

Just 880 proof Morgan dollars were struck in 1895 for inclusion in the year’s silver proof sets. Perhaps half that number survive today, but only a handful of those coins are in a condition approaching the PR68 Ultra Cameo level.

On the early coinage side, the most prestigious pedigree belongs to a 1793 Wreath cent with Vine and Bars edge, S-5, B-6, graded MS61 Brown by PCGS. It is estimated at $50,000+.

This coin has been well-recognized and important to collectors for more than a century. It was first highlighted in the auction catalog for the Dr. Charles Clay Collection, sold all the way back in 1871. After that, it passed through a series of famous hands, including W. Eliot Woodward, Lorin G. Parmelee, and Wayte Raymond. We expect another name with plenty of future appeal to add this prestigious and carefully preserved coin to his or her collection.

In addition to proof silver, proof gold is also well-represented in this auction by an 1876 three dollar gold piece graded PR63 by PCGS, a proof-only issue with an official mintage of just 45 pieces, among the most elusive Philadelphia dates in the series. This Select example was certified early in the history of PCGS, before the coin’s obvious cameo contrast would have been noted on the holder. It is estimated at $40,000+.

A 20^th century highlight in the proof gold category comes with a 1901 double eagle graded PR66 Cameo by NGC. Proof twenty dollar gold pieces are among the most prestigious series for U.S. collectors. Just 92 proof double eagles were struck for the first year of the 20th century, and few of those massive gold coins have survived with their mirrored surfaces so carefully preserved as this example. It is estimated at $75,000+.

Additional highlights include, but are not limited to:

• Lot 3613, a 1796 16 Stars Obverse half dollar, O-102, graded VG10 by PCGS with CAC sticker: Estimate: $45,000+.
• Lot 3835, an 1879 Trade dollar graded PR68 Cameo by NGC with CAC sticker: Estimate: $40,000+.
• Lot 4401, an 1809/8 half eagle, BD-1, graded MS64 by NGC: Estimate: $40,000+.
• Lot 4461, an 1892 half eagle graded PR67 Ultra Cameo by NGC: Estimate: $60,000+.

This auction is open for bidding now at HA.com/Coins.

Related posts:

1. One of the finest 1895 Morgan dollars known headlines Heritage Houston U.S. Coin Auction
2. Proof 1884-CC Morgan Dollar Headlines Heritage’s Houston Auction
3. Bullock 1856-O double eagle brings $345,000 to headline $13.4 Million Heritage Long Beach Auction

As someone who is pretty attuned to the strengths and weaknesses of the rare gold coin market, I can accurately rate how well (or poorly) a specific series is performing. 2010 was an interesting year for gold coins. We saw tremendous price increases in gold bullion but many areas of the coin market were flat. In the first annual DWN Rare Gold Coin Market Heat Index (cue sizzling sound effect…), I am going to discuss the relative position(s) of the most commonly traded areas of the market.

This totally non-scientific study is keyed to the following ratings, which go from 1 to 10:

1. This series is so cold you couldn’t give the coins away
2-5: This series ranges from ice cold to moderate strength
6-9: This series ranges from strong to very strong
10: This series is en fuego

And without further ado, let’s talk hot or cold gold…

I. Gold Dollars

There is pretty solid overall collector support for gold dollars. While there do not appear to be many specialists working on complete sets, there are a number of collectors working on focused subsets; i.e., Dahlonega dollars, Civil War issues, etc. I would say that Type One branch mint dollars are probably the strongest overall segement of this market and the weakest is, clearly, high grade non-branch mint Type Two coins.

In the Type Three series, I am noticing some strength in very high quality Philadelphia issues from the 1870’s and 1880’s. In most cases, the coins that are the strongest are PCGS graded MS67 and better pieces with great eye appeal. The Charlotte and Dahlonega market is very bifurcated. Top quality original pieces in all grades are very strong while overgraded, non-original pieces are hard to sell even at a serious discount.

OVERALL RATING: 5. This denomination is collector-driven and reasonably strong as of the end of 2010. The coins showing the greatest demand include the very rare Dahlonega issues (1855-D, 1856-D and 1861-D), mintmarked Type Two coins in “collector grades” and Finest Known or high Condition Census Type Three issues graded by PCGS and approved by CAC.

II. Quarter Eagles

This is perhaps the most mixed denomination in the entire U.S. gold oeuvre as the heat index ranges from borderline frigid to pretty toasty. Early quarter eagles are showing mixed collector support. These coins are still undervalued when compared to other early gold denominations but they are no longer “cheap.” Some weak auction results for overgraded 1796 No Stars and 1808 quarter eagles have lowered Trends but nice examples of these two significant dates are still in demand. Collectors of early quarter eagles are looking for value. They want either very rare issues that are underpriced (such as the 1826/5 or the 1834) or coins that are choice and original.

The Classic Head series seems fairly weak right now with the exception of nice EF-AU grade branch mint pieces which are still popular.

The Liberty Head series is beginning to attract more collectors as people come to realize that there are many legitimately scarce coins from the 1840’s, 1860’s and 1870’s available for $5,000 and less. Branch mint coins from this series have a good following. Dahlonega quarter eagles are very popular and easy to sell as long as they are decent quality (or better) for the grade. Charlotte and New Orleans issues are less popular. Unless these coins are very choice and original, they sell for discounts relative to Trends.

The Indian Head series remains cold although it shows more heat than at this time last year. Prices are inching up for certain issues. The key 1911-D still seems overvalued, even at the new lower level(s) that it has adjusted to.

OVERALL RATING: 4 1/2. Without the Indian Head series I would actually have ranked the quarter eagle denomination a 6 but the weakness of these coins (along with softness in the generic MS65/MS66 common date Liberty Head issues from 1898-1907) drag down the overall score by one to one-and-a-half points. The coins showing the greatest demand include the rarities (1841, 1854-S, 1863 and 1875 in higher grades) and the key issues from Dahlonega (especially the 1856-D). Also in demand are nice pre-1834 quarter eagles in AU55 and above that are choice, original and well-made. I’m noticing some subtle demand (demand-in-the making?) for affordable higher quality Philadelphia and San Francisco coins from the 1860’s and 1870’s. These have gone from ice cold to moderately strong in 2010.

III. Three Dollars

The Three Dollar gold denomination remained one of the least in-demand areas of the rare coin market in 2010. Despite a strong price increase in gold bullion, values for Uncirculated generic Threes dropped and, in the case of MS65 coins, they dropped fairly precipitously. There is some demand for the popular Civil War issues and exotic later date low-mintage issues occassionally breakout of the sell-for-a-discount box that they have resided in for the last few years.

There is a good supply of nice Threes on the market right now (and this is one of the few denominations that this is so) and a contrarian collector with alot of self-confidence could put together an outstanding collection in the next few years. I’m not certain what it will take to jumpstart this series but, at this time, the patient is on life support.

OVERALL RATING: 2. Three Dollar gold pieces are in the doldrums and they don’t appear to have more than marginalized support. There are occasional bright spots in this market. Very rare, low mintage Proofs have brought strong prices at their infrequent auction apperances and any PCGS graded, CAC approved finest known branch mint issue has enough collecor support that it would bring a record price if available. Two iconic branch mint issues are showing mixed results. The 1854-O is weak now due to an oversupply of overgraded examples. The 1854-D is actually showing much more strength than a year or two ago and prices have risen for this popular coin in 2010. A Gem 1875, if available, would be in demand as well.

IV. Half Eagles

If I had to predict which U.S. gold coin is poised for the biggest potential gains in the next few years it would be the half eagle. There is alot of value to be had in this denomination (especially in the Liberty Head series) and I wouldn’t be surpised to see a few ambitious collectors attempt to make a splash in this area.

Early half eagles are showing good demand, especially in the EF45 to MS62 range. Any pre-1813 half eagle that is graded by PCGS and NGC and is priced below $7,500 has eager buyers, as long as it is reasonably attractive. The 1795 half eagle has renewed demand after having dropped in price since its peak in late 2007/early 2008. Higher grade (MS63 and above) half eagles struck from 1800-1812 are steady to slightly up in value but the coins must be nice for the grade to sell for published levels. There have been almost no Fat Head half eagles (other than the usual array of 1813’s) on the market in the last two or three years. These coins are generally off the market in tightly-held collections and I believe that if any fresh, mega-rare pieces were to become available in the next few months, they would sell for all-time highs.

The Classic Head market is fairly soft with the exception of the 1838-C and 1838-D which are extremely popular in all grades. It’s been quite some time since I’ve seen a nice 1838-D for sale and a choice, original Uncirculated coin could bring alot of money in this market.

As I mentioned above, collectors are beginning to recognize the value inherent in the Liberty Head half eagle series. Nice Uncirculated coins from the 1840’s and 1850’s are very rare and in the case of the Philadelphia coins, they are affordable in grades up to and including MS63. Charlotte and Dahlonega half eagles are strong as long as the coin(s) are nice for the grade with good surfaces and color. New Orleans half eagles of this era remain popular with collectors and the supply of higher grade examples (AU55 and above) seems to have suddenly dried-up. The rare date No Motto issues from San Francisco remain difficult to sell with a few exceptions; notably the very rare 1864-S. I would rate the No Motto market as strong and getting stronger.

The With Motto market is not as strong. Carson City half eagles seem to be less popular with advanced specialists than in the past and are selling for discounts unless they are exceptional. Better date Philadelphia and San Francisco issues are weak with the exception of the excessively rare 1875 (an AU55 example just sold for $143,750 in the November 2010 Bowers and Merena auction). Generic With Motto Liberty Head half eagles are weak with MS65 and MS66 coins having dropped in price during 2010.

The Indian Head half eagle series is showing a bit of strength in the better-date mintmarked issues from the 1910’s. Common dates are weak and prices for MS65’s have dropped significantly in the last year; enough to the point that I actually think they are a good value right now.

OVERALL RATING: 5. The half eagle market is solid but not spectacular. The “right” coin can sell for a record price (as witnesed by the AU55 1875 that I mentioned above) but there are enough overgraded, low-demand pieces selling for discounts at auction to keep the overall heat index factor at just a “5.” I have had very good success selling early half eagles and No Motto Liberty Head half eagles in the $2,000-25,000 range this year. My gut instinct tells me that some of the overlooked rare dates from the 1855-1875 era could be seeing more demand in the coming years.

V. Eagles

For years, I’ve written that eagles were “the next big thing” and, for once, I was right. This denomination saw a number of record prices in 2010 and Liberty Head eagles led they way due to competition among a small but dedicated number of collectors at the top end of the market.

But not all was rosy in the World of Eagles. Early eagles saw weakness that continued from 2009. This is clearly the result of some truly gross coins in holders. I often see coins graded AU55, AU58, MS61 and even MS62 that are 100% unoriginal and lack any semblance of eye appeal. While pieces of this (low) quality still brought decent prices at auction in 2006-2008, the market has become more selective and now these coins sell for discounts. This has reduced values across the board but, suddenly, I like choice, original examples at 20-25% discounts off of previous market highs. I can’t remember any properly graded MS64 or better early eagles selling in the last year and I think a CAC-approved example would still bring a very strong price.

The Liberty Head eagle series did really well in 2010 and this trend should continue for the foreseeable future. Any Finest Known or high Condition Census coins, regardless of date or mint, should do quite well. New Orleans eagles are popular and in demand and interesting high grade pieces (like the record-breaking 1842-O that brought over $70,000 this year at auction) will continue to bring high prices. I think a real value play in this area are common date Philadelphia No Motto coins from the 1840’s and 1850’s in choice AU to MS63 grades.

With Motto coins of this denomination saw sporadic levels of demand. Carson City eagles sputtered a bit but really high end, choice pieces were actively sought. If a very nice 1870-CC came on the market it would be a potential record-setter. New Orleans eagles were led by the 1883-O which, in a short period of time, has gone from hugely undervalued to hugely priced. Even the formerly undervalued 1880-O saw some love in higher grades. The semi-scarce Philadelphia and San Francisco issues from the 1880’s and 1890’s remained overlooked and these are undervalued. If the concept of the “short set” were ever applied to With Motto eagles, these dates could appreciate quite a bit.

Indian Head eagles were similar in performance to their half eagle counterparts. There was some interest in AU58 to MS63 better dates from the teens and the rare 1920-S and 1930-S saw slightly increased demand. Common dates in MS65 and above were weak. Proofs were weak unless the coins were PCGS graded and CAC approved. The few original Gem Indian Head eagles that sold in the last year brought very strong prices as collectors have come to realize how few of these coins remain with natural color and surfaces.

OVERALL RATING: 7 Based on the results of the Stack’s Johnson-Blue auction this Fall, I might have rated this denomination a “9? but one extremely strong auction doesn’t make for a blazing hot market. But that said, the demand for nice eagles has picked up quite a bit. Early eagles will continue to be soft unless the coins are “all there.” I think Liberty Head eagles are a great example of what happens when a few collectors begin to compete for nice coins. As I have always said, it doesn’t take dozens of new players in a market to drive prices up if the coins are genuinely scarce. I’d look for the middle end of the Liberty Head eagle market to show some appreciation this year as collectors who are priced out of the higher end coins look at pieces in the EF45 to AU55+ range. Quality and originality will remain a key factor in this area of the market.

VI. Double Eagles

If you follow the rare gold coin market just a little, itsy-bitsy bit you probably are aware that double eagles were the unquestioned darling of the market in 2010. I see no reason why this won’t continue into 2011–and beyond.

Why are double eagles so popular right now? A combination of factors. Obviously, their size and intrinsic worth helps them. They have a great back story and the presence of shipwreck coins has brought hundreds of serious new buyers into the double eagle market. I also think that it helps that these coins are rare but no so much so that they are unpromotable. You can promote an 1870 quarter eagle in Mint State; there just aren’t enough to go around. But most of the popular dates in the double eagle series exist in a large enough quantity that nearly everyone who wants one can have one. maybe not in the ultimate grade(s) but in close to optimal condition. And that’s the beauty of this denomination, in a nutshell.

There wasn’t a more popular series of coin in all of the numismatic market in 2010 than Type One Liberty Head double eagles. These coins were in demand in all grade and price levels. Even though values rose considerably, there are still at least fifteen to twenty different dates in the series that can be bought in Extremely Fine grades for $3,000 or less. This series did well in both the low end and high end although a few dates like the 1861-S Paquet and 1866-S No Motto are off their 2007/08 historic highs. New Orleans issues did nicely this year as did San Francisco coins. I think the best value play in this market are the Philadelphia coins struck from 1854 to 1860 in AU50 or better.

After a few years of softness, the Type Two market picked up quite a bit. The Philadelphia issues from 1866 to 1872 were popular and the Carson City coins were in strong demand. Speaking of Type Two CC double eagles, the 1870-CC remains a bit of an enigma. Clearly, its price level is off its high of a few years ago but no really nice examples came to the market in 2010. I’d be very curious to see what a high end PCGS AU50 or AU53 brought if available.

The Type Three market was a bit more spotty. The unquestioned leaders from a demand standpoint were the CC issues which are suddenly in very strong demand in all grades. The extremely rare low mintage Philadelphia dates (1881, 1882, 1885, 1886 and 1891) continued to sell for record prices when available. The weakest area were the condition rarity common and semi-scarce Philadelphia and San Francisco issues. But even these coins could occasionally hit a huge home run at auction if they were really choice for the grade, free of serious marks and had population of ten or less with fewer (or none) better.

The Saint Gaudens market did not fare as well. It seems like there are not enough new buyers to keep up with the supply of scarce and rare dates that were available in the last year and prices dropped accordingly. There were exceptions. PCGS graded, CAC examples of genuinely rare dates from the 1920’s and early 1930’s brought strong prices if the coins were graded spot-on. If they were marginal quality, they often sold at a strong discount. It was possible for a coin like a 1927-S in MS64 to have a value range of $50,000-60,000 for a low end coin and $75,000-85,000 for a high end one. The generic Saint market was, as always, like a numismatic yo-yo with lots of ups and downs. Premiums for MS63 to MS65 coins were high around the middle of the year but shrunk as the price of gold soared. MS66 and MS67 coins with CAC stickers were in strong demand and did well. It seems likely that they will continue to be in demand in the coming year.

OVERALL RATING: 8 1/2. If dated Saints had performed better in 2010, this number would clearly be a “9.” Liberty Head double eagles were the top performer in the rare gold market in 2010. The areas that were in the greatest demand included rare Type One issues in all grades, “exotic” shipwreck coins (i.e., non-S mint Central America coins, PL and DMPL pieces, etc.), high end rare date Type Two coins, rare low mintage date Type Threes and virtually all Carson City pieces.

I’d like your comments and feedback about the 2010 Heat Index. Please feel free to send me an email at dwn@ont.com and let me know which areas of the dated gold market were the most sizzlin’ in 2010 and which you think will be the hotties of 2011.

Related posts:

1. The Gold, Silver and Rare Coin Market Report
2. The Best Values in Todays Rare Coin Market
3. 12 Great Values in the Rare Date Gold Market Priced Below $5,000