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Legend Numismatics Mid May Coin Market Report

By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics

We figured not many people would miss us not posting NEWPS after CSNS, but we must have had fifty emails asking us what happened. Fortunately our reason for no NEWPS was all good. Soon we will have a major announcement about another big deal Legend Numismatics completed. This one just had to completed immediately after CSNS ended. So hence we had no time to go through our purchases. We’re back in the office and are up to full steam. Activity at our level of the market is as strong as ever!

WE FIGURED OUT WHERE ALL THE COINS ARE!

We’ve been crying for months that the supply of neat, fresh, and accurately graded coins is virtually non existent. Except for auctions, prices are virtually “stuck in mud” due to a fair level of dreck still floating around and the fact most cool coins are in VERY strong hands (which means no trading).

IT MUST BE THE DRINKING WATER

We started to thinking as to what hoards exist or how big some collections are. We scared ourselves when we realized that in the Dallas/Fort Worth area alone there are TWO (yes, just TWO) collections that are highly active and if combined would be worth in excess of $500,000,000.00! Anyone who knows either collection would not dispute that number. As caretaker of one of the collections, we know it has at least 15 coins valued in excess of $1 million dollars! We wouldn’t even know where to begin counting with the collection on the other side of town (they probably have 25+ coin over $1 million each)!

Its not just the glamour or money that attracts us to these huge collections. If you think about it, for anyone to put that kind of money into a coin collection today, not only are they rich, but they have extreme confidence in the market. Rich people do not throw their money away. BOTH collections contain some of the VERY BEST coins ever minted. Both owners will pay extreme premiums to obtain the classic rarities that fit. We highly doubt any significant pieces from these collections will be on the market again in our lifetime. However if either of these monster collections are ever sold in years to come, the returns would be staggering-even on their short term holdings!

Thinking about other ares in the country, we could not find a pocket anywhere near the size of those two collections. NYC has a few collections we know worth over $25,000,000.00 each (we know of at least $100 million total in NYC), the Midwest we know of one collection worth at least $50,000,000.00, and surprisingly, we do not know of any mega collections worth more than $10,000,000.00 on the West Coast. However, all across the US we know of dozens plus collections worth $1 million to $10 million. That is just amazing that without much effort we can figure where ONE BILLION DOLLARS worth of rare coins are.

Legend deals with many significant collections and individual collectors who have large holdings. In many series if a coin is pop 3 or less, chances are we know where all 3 are. Or, if there is an incredible single coin (like the 1909 $20 PCGS PR65 we placed many years ago) we can offer our customers a significant return and they still won’t sell!

The Internet has also made the market so spread out, that a ton of US Rare coins have gone abroad-possibly never to be seen again. Its a well known fact that the Japanese have been HUGE buyers of GEM PR Gold and CC DMPL Morgans for years. VERY few of those coins have resurfaced in the US. It seems every where you look there are huge “black holes” that coins fall into never to be seen again.

Even though it the market is currently hurting trading wise because of no coins, we take all these coins being in such strong hands as a HUGE positive. As we have said before, its only a matter of time before the dreck goes away and the prices of real rare coins go up.

WHAT CAN I DO IF THERE ARE NO COINS?

We suggest you buy the BEST coins that are available. Unfortunately, if you were to try to build a GEM MS Seated Dollar Collection all PCGS MS65 and higher-it would be impossible. We just had a long time customer sell us his set because newps were showing up for him only once every two years! Do your homework. Select a series that has coins available. Or, our favorite advice: just buy anything really neat. Do NOT force yourself to do a series. In a Type set you can include the rarest dates, or the most commonest ones in any grade. You don’t even have to do that. You can just buy coins with no rhyme or reason. Its the overall assemblage of quality and eye appeal that will sustain significant value. And most important: DO NOT BE AFRAID TO PAY A PREMIUM FOR TRUE QUALITY. These days you can be offered a coin at a show, walk around the isle and come back right away and it is sold. Opportunities are not there and there is a HUGE demand. You will lose out if you think too long. Only dreck has real downside.

There will always be people buying and selling. Right now we are in a rare period where prices are stalled and there is no reason to sell anything great. You have to adjust your collecting desires. Don’t you think its driving us batty that we work with some of the biggest active buyers in coins and we can not find the coins?

WATCH GOLD

Here we go again! Better gold coins were red hot at the end of last year. Since then, they have cooled and even generics have lost their premiums. Well, just a little spike in gold woke everyone up. You can not find much rare Early Gold, better gold (like GEM rare $10 Indians), and Proof gold is non existent. The supplies were small to begin with. Now demand is coming back fast. We predict any dealer who has any decent better gold at the upcoming Nashville Show will be picked clean at set up. With all levels of gold you have serious problems with dreck. However the best gold (usually CAC’d) is rising in value (just check auction prices). We sell every single CAC MS66 Saint we buy (and we pay $3,400.00 each vs $2,700.00 for others). Gold coins could very well be the area that lead the entire coin market on price rises.

WE DID NOT SACRAFICE QUALITY

As you will see, our inventory offering is lighter than usual. We will wait for the “right” coin. We did find a few spectacular coins w/CAC stickers, but then that is our market. Buy and selling marginal coins is not our thing. Still, we have been shaking the trees hard (our sources) and have been able to find a coin or two. We doubt that unless we buy a major deal, you will not be seeing us post 100 coins worth $1,000,000.00+ of newps regularly. Legend Numismatics is and will always be about quality.

This week we will have a table at the Las Vegas Invitational Show.

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