By Laura Sperber of Legend Numismatics

As we stated in our last Market Report, we were having trouble gauging where the market is. From our vantage point we see some very interesting happenings. It is still hard for us to see the exact direction the market is going. BUT we do NOT see it crashing or making a major overall adjustment right now.

Big money collectors are still in the game-however they are clearly shifting their goals. We have seen many cashing out “lesser” coins and reinvesting (for lack of a better word) in to rarer more quality orieinted coins. By that we mean if a player had a $1 82CC in MS66, he sold it and bought something like a GEM Bust Quarter (if one had been around). In the past 2 weeks since the ANA, we have been able to outright purchase (or recieve on consignment) at least $2 MILLION dollars worth of coins. That is something we have never experienced at this time of the year. It was weird, we’d do one deal then the next day out of the blue another would come up and we’d be flying out. Of course right after ANA is usally the worst time to sell, but people didn’t seem to care as they questioned the future or had other coins they wanted to buy now. Not one person who sold told us they needed the money to pay bills (although one person did mention taxes). Most were shifting focus or assets.

Collectors seem very skeptical about buying unless a coin is super rare, has over the top quality for the grade, and is a must buy for their specific collection. We do not see many impulse purchases happening right now from collectors. The real danger, is we do see substantial INVESTOR purchasing occuring. We can sell MILLIONS to the telemarketers who deal with them or the 2 big funds that are out there. We have had several INVESTORS call us direct and requested we build them portfolios. INVESTORS are funny, they won’t just buy anything, but when they find the “right” coin or hear the ‘right” numbers about it, the checks fly! Our sales since ANA have been incredibly strong-but then we also have a supply of fresh, truely rare, and neat coins, while many other dealers do not. We still will pay what it takes to buy certain coins because we know what is NOT available. And yes, we are still looking for that NON 1926/1932 PCGS MS65 CAC stickered $10 Indian.

From our past experiences, when INVESTORS start overpowering collectors and end up running things up (apparently that happened in the Heritage ANA sale), it may very well be a sign we are potentially near the top. Of course one can never predict exactly where the top is, but if you can come within 15%, you’ve beaten the odds. We strongly believe the market WILL slow down a little. We do NOT think it will crash as it is too diverse and has too many sources buying. Even if gold does continue its rapid spiral down, we think if there is a correction in the coin market will be for only 10-20% to the more commoner coins. Bad or overgraded coins have already been being pummeled and are now off by at least 25%. Properly graded truely rare coins will survive just fine and may even prosper in a correction. Its things like marginally graded 24S Saints in MS64 that could have problems. A GEM Bust Quarter certainly will NOT nor will a true GEM 25S Peace Dollar.

We hope we are wrong in this guess as it will knock even more of the “middle class” out of the market. Since there are so few “great” coins around anyway, if the market firms, you’ll see even crazier prices. It will be a VERY interesting remainder of the year.

LEGEND DOES MORE PATTERNS-THE BRANDON COLLECTION

Before the ANA Show we flew out to buy a major pattern collection. We’ve named it the Brandon Collection. It was assembled between 1989 and 1998 by a VERY astute collector (who also is a world class negotiator).  Many of the coins are so rare, that before he bought them they had only appeared a few times since they were minted! Highlights of this set include all 3 Transitional Seated Dollar dates: 1863 NGC PR65, 1864 NGC PR64 Cameo, and 1865 NGC PR65. The majority of his coins suffer from “Rarity spanking” and are priced stupid cheap. “Rarity spanking” is the term we use when a coin makes so few appearances because it is so rare the price actually is kept down. Patterns overall see this phenomena happen the most.

Legend is firmly committed to the pattern market. No, its not just because our biggest customer is building the finest most complete ever set of them and loves them, but we see real value and potential. Believe us, we initated the major $30 million dollar plus pattern deal we did last year because we felt the risk was minimal and patterns were just plain cheap. Looking back, we not only are happy we did it, but we wish we could find more neat collections like that. We will never forget when a long time customer of ours built a GEM Morgan set and told us this: he put it out for his dad to see. While he was thrilled to hear what his dad had to say, his dad looked at them and said, “so, they all look the same”? The next day we were on the plane to pick up his set. With patterns you do not have that. You have interesting designs, classic rarity, tremendous history, and so much more. Also our biggest postive about Patterns, many are super reasonably priced. You can buy J-1322 an 1873 PCGS PR65 TD for $13,500.00 which is the same price you’d pay for a regular 1873-which is slightly commoner! Only because telemarketers screwed around with patterns in the late 70’s and 80’s did they get a bad rap. So many people have stayed away that prices haven’t really moved. Now, because of our deal and a few other dealers taking notice, patterns are being collected again and are showing huge potential. We have been pleasantly surprised how many people want to add a few patterns to their regular sets, or how many just had been too afraid to start collecting them and now feel secure knowing we are there to work with them. There are 2000 patterns to collect. Only our one customer (that we are aware of) is trying for a complete set, but you can build hundreds, if not thousands of varitations of sets. These days even completing a GEM Liberty Nickel set is impossible, patterns are a fantastic alternative.

THE COIN DOCTORS

These genuises are really feeling the heat. The services are definately on patrol and clearly are making their lives miserable, and now with the big federal indictments just handed down in the baseball card industry concerning doctoring (and a few other issues), many coin docs are scared they could be next (and should be). We think its only a matter of time. One pathetic loser (the same guy who has threatened us but lies and denys it) is in such a panic he even went so far as to try and organize a boycott against us. We think it is hilarious! Ok, so we don’t make $5,000.00 a year in courtesy purchases from his one friend. Hellow stupid, we spent $2 MILLION last week, he really hurt our supply! It does provide good comedy to watch these guys think they can bully us and rule the numismatic world. Its amazing how they think it is their god given right to doctor coins and the rest of us are all wrong. Sorry guys, its time for you to relearn how to be legit dealers! BTW, collectors should ask a dealer where do they buy most of their coins, if its from auction or from other dealers. An even better way to find out if they are pimps for the coin docs, ask OTHER dealers if they know where so an so gets their coins from. The bourse floor hold s few secrets. You WILL be shocked as to who is nothing more than whore for these guys. Shame on the dealers who support and sell coins for these thieves. On our opinion, they are no better than the docs.